TURKMEN GAS IS OUT OF REACH FOR EUROPE
Teymur Huseynov London, England

Wall Street Journal
August 18, 2009, 7:46 P.M. Et.

Alexandros Petersen’s article "Europe’s Listless Quest for Energy"
(State of the Union, Aug. 11) comes at a crucial juncture, when the
geopolitical struggle for control of Europe’s energy supply is in
full swing. But Mr. Petersen overemphasizes Turkmenistan’s role as
the prime resource base for the Nabucco pipeline. Tied to Russia’s
Gazprom with a 25-year export agreement signed in 2003 and building
a 40-billion-cubic-meter pipeline eastward to China, Turkmenistan
is unlikely to be in a position to produce additional volumes by
2014. Even if this forecast is proved wrong, the unresolved legal
status of the Caspian Sea alongside Russia’s and Iran’s negative
stances on the issue mean the future of the Trans-Caspian pipeline
is rather blurry. This is why Azerbaijan began to be regarded as
the potential prime supplier of Nabucco by Brussels and Washington
earlier this year. However, even this option will present economic
and security challenges.

As the prime oil exporter in the Caspian region, Azerbaijan’s
production of this commodity will start falling from 2013-2014 and
there is a risk that by 2020 the country’s oil supply might not be
self-sufficient. If this happens, the use of gas in the domestic market
will increase significantly, especially in light of the government’s
goal of developing the non-energy sectors of the national economy,
which would leave smaller volumes available for Nabucco than currently
planned.

Ethno-political conflicts in the South Caucasus, such as the dispute
between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region,
pose fundamental risks to Europe’s efforts to diversify its energy
supply. With rapidly increased defense spending by Azerbaijan,
the intermediary powers-U.S., Russia, France and U.K.-are
trying to persuade the country not to resort to force under any
circumstances. This effort is rather futile. The Kosovo and Georgia
conflicts have already set a dangerous precedent. In today’s greater
Europe, successful self-determination may increasingly be achieved
through the use of force rather than principles of international
law or compromise. Therefore, with regard to Nagorno-Karabakh,
negotiators should focus on reconciling the principles of territorial
integrity and self-determination to achieve peace between Armenia and
Azerbaijan. This would open the doors for the former to participate
in transnational energy projects in the region.