HE DOES NOT KNOW TO GO OR NOT TO GO
Hakob Badalyan

mments&pid=14965
18:26:47 – 20/08/2009

Recently the Armenian political thought, partly also the public
curiosity is obsessed with one question, whether Serge Sargsyan will
go to Turkey or not. In this connection, everyone knows what Serge
Sargsyan has said about it: "I will go if the Armenian-Turkish border
is opened, or in case we come closer to its opening."

This expression is evidence to Serge Sargsyan’s uncertainty and
confusion about the Armenian-Turkish relations and the future of the
so-called football diplomacy rather than Serge Sargsyan’s staunch
stance. Perhaps Serge Sargsyan has no idea what this relation is going
to take him in the future, and therefore he wants to reserve his ticket
to go to Turkey, using the expression "close to opening the border".

Meanwhile, when the football diplomacy was being undertaken, he stated
that Armenia’s "arsenal" is not limited to the invitation to Abdullah
Gul after the decision on relations with Turkey. Serge Sargsyan said
Armenia has other ideas to use in the process of establishment of
relations with Turkey. Where are those ideas? Why is Armenia not
taking any steps so far besides the invitation to Gul and April 22
midnight statement?

The answer is more than obvious. The football diplomacy for the
regulation of the Armenian and Turkish relations has never been
Armenia’s competence. Therefore, Armenia cannot have independence in
this process. It is not accidental that Serge Sargsyan gave the start
of the process of improvement of the Armenian and Turkish relations,
that is the invitation to Gul in the capital of Russia. Besides,
perhaps it is not accidental that Serge Sargsyan expressed most of his
"pro-initiative" ideas outside Armenia, during foreign visits. Also it
is not accidental that during the presidential campaign Serge Sargsyan
did not reveal his intention to reach a "breakthrough" in the Armenian
and Turkish relations to check the moods and expectations regarding
this issue.

Ostensibly, Serge Sargsyan himself does not know whether he is leaving
for Turkey or not. Most probably, however, he will have to go. So
is the logic of not only the improvement of these relations but also
imitation of improvement. The process has lost its primary interest
in great powers and geopolitical centers, especially in the context
of escalation in Afganistan and Iraq, but given its geopolitical
potential, it will not be "archived" because it may become useful to
the solution of certain problems in Afganistan and Iraq.

Hence, there is little probability that Serge Sargsyan will take up
the responsibility for cancelling the football diplomacy. What is he
going to explain to the geopolitical centers for which he has been
delivering so "constructive" and "pro-active" speeches over the past
year and a half?