Sunday’s Zaman
DOGU ERGIL
Turkish-Armenian relations and others
23.08.2009
The Turkish press is rife with news that Armenia is backpedaling in
its commitment to realize the expected Armenian-Turkish rapprochement,
for President Serzh Sarksyan of Armenia declared that he will not
visit Turkey during the next World Cup qualifying game to return
Turkish President Abdullah Gül’s visit to Armenia back in 2008. The
Turkish position that may have led to the opening of borders between
the two countries has been fundamentally altered with the opposition
of its close ally, Azerbaijan, which protested the normalization of
Turkish-Armenian relations until the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is solved
and Armenia returns the 20 percent of Azeri territory that it has
occupied since the war that took place between the two countries in
the early 1990s. In May, Ankara, under pressure from Baku, linked the
reopening of its border with Armenia with a comprehensive solution to
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Turkey had closed its Armenian border
in 1993 in support of Azerbaija!
n, which it called a `kin country’ in official and popular
parlance. Needless to say, Azerbaijan holds the key to Turkey’s bid to
be an energy hub for petroleum and gas pipelines that will extend from
Asia to Europe.
American lawmakers claim that normalization talks between Ankara and
Yerevan were supposed to evolve over a `road map.’ However, Turkey
stalled the process, which was supposed to take place without
preconditions. Indeed, Turkey and Armenia signed a document on April
22, pledging to work to normalize their relations. Although their road
map has not been made public, sources said it includes the setting up
of full diplomatic relations, and, more importantly, the reopening of
the two neighbors’ land border, which has been closed for 16 years.
Over 80 pro-Armenian members of the US House of Representatives
recently sent a letter to President Barack Obama complaining that
Turkey is failing to keep its pledge. The congressmen said in the
letter that Turkey was in violation of the April deal with
Yerevan. Their impression is that even though `the government of
Armenia remains committed to this road map and has long offered to
establish ties with Turkey without preconditions, Turkey’s public
statements and actions since April 24 stand in sharp contrast to this
agreement and undermine US policy that normalization take place
without preconditions’ and `within a reasonable timeframe.’
Eighty-one of the 435 members of the House of Representatives known to
be pro-Armenian signed the letter sent to President Obama in July. It
is these lawmakers that want to pass an `Armenian genocide resolution’
pending in the House after Congress reopens in September.
On the home front, relations between Ankara and Yerevan are not
getting better. The `soccer diplomacy’ initiative appears to have lost
momentum. Yerevan seems to be preparing to get `tough’ with
Ankara. The first sign came with President Sarksyan’s declaration on
July 28 that he would travel to Ýstanbul for an Oct. 14 World Cup
qualifying match between Turkey and Armenia only if agreements are
observed and border gates between the two countries are opened. The
Armenian opposition and the critical Armenian diaspora, which has
effective leverage on Yerevan, loved this statement. They believe that
reconciliation with Ankara is against Armenian interests and will not
provide the diplomatic impetus to open up the borders. They believe
that President Sarksyan had made every effort to re-establish
diplomatic ties with Turkey and have the border reopened, without
insisting on conditions for rapprochement. But the Turks have
declined.
Opposition spokespersons are bold, for they have nothing to lose,
making statements such as `Armenia should have ceased talks
immediately after Turkey’s statement about Nagorno-Karabakh’ or
`President Sarksyan’s declaration is better late than never.’ Yet more
balanced commentators say, `Sarksyan seems to be lost in a trap as the
soccer diplomacy is coming to an end.’ Considering that the framework
for a Nagorno-Karabakh resolution is to be handled in October, it is
unlikely that any real changes will take place between the two
countries’ relations before October. Most likely, the Armenian
president will not go to Turkey for the soccer match. However, Turkey
will take some small steps again, which will prevent Armenia from
drifting away while trying not to annoy Azerbaijan. The process will
require able diplomats and moderation on the part of politicians.