AZERI MILITARY BUILD UP A MAJOR THREAT TO ARMENIA
By Edmond Y. Azadian

AZG Armenian Daily #150,
25/08/09

Karabakh issue

We have lost count how many trips have been taken by OSCE
representatives to Yerevan, Stepanakert and Baku, trying to negotiate
a settlement between Armenians and Azeris in the thorny issue of
Nagorno Karabagh. In addition, seven meetings have taken place on
the presidential level between Serge Sargisian and Ilham Aliyev.

No breakthrough has yet been achieved. Yet, after each "constructive"
meeting, Ilham Aliyev comes up with a new bellicose announcement
that the military option is not off the table. Even after signing
the Meindorf agreement, which specifically commits the parties to a
peaceful solution, Mr. Aliyev made yet another threat in London. Still,
neither the OSCE representatives, nor their respective governments,
have ever even given a slap on the Azeri wrist for its threats to
disrupt negotiations and launch a new war in the Caucasus.

This, of course, emboldens the Azeri leadership, which began to
match its words with concrete acts: Indeed the Baku government has
been engaged in a huge military build up using its petrodollars for
arms purchases. During the last five years Azerbaijan has increased
its military budget by 1,300 percent, raising it from a mere $175
million to $2.5 billion in 2009.

Through all the negotiations the Azeri side has not moved an iota from
its original position: evacuate all captured territories, including
Karabagh and we will grant Armenians the "highest degree of autonomy,"
whatever that means.

All this military build-up is being achieved at the expense of one
million Azeri internal refugees, who still live under tents there in
order to generate more sympathy internationally.

The European Armenian Federation has released a statement in Brussels,
this week, warning of the alarming Azeri military build-up and
calling on the OSCE representatives to negotiate a non-aggression
pact between Armenia and Azerbaijan. A timely reminder, indeed. Of
course, a non-aggression pact can last as long as there is parity and
military balance between the two sides. Once the balance is tipped,
no one can tie the aggressor’s hands any more. The Ribbentrop-Molotov
pact of 1941, between the USSR and Nazi Germany, is a glaring precedent
about the durability of such pacts.

The Armenian side has been restrained thus far in order not to
escalade the rhetoric. But that was taken as a sign of weakness and
the military chief in Karabagh noted in a statement recently that the
defeated party cannot be that arrogant and that should a war break
out, Azerbaijan has more to lose than Armenia, with all its pipelines,
oil refineries and other related facilities.

But who is behind Azerbaijan? Who is prompting this overblown
arrogance? Certainly Turkey and Israel, two countries furtively
engaged in training and arming the demoralized Azeri Army.

Azerbaijan’s arrogance is not only derived from the quantity of its
military hardware; because the Azeri leadership is also reassured
that it enjoys the backing of some regional and world powers, which
will stand by its adventurous course.

Last time the war against Azerbaijan was won by Russia’s political,
military and logistical support. At that time, Armenia had veered
off course and was leaning towards Turkey at Russia’s expense and
Russia needed a speedy correction to that course. This time around,
the political lineup has a different feature in the Caucasus. While
Turkey is still on the Azeri side, we are not sure of Russia’s role,
after its major gas deal with Azerbaijan to thwart Western plans to
undermine Russia’s hold on energy sources.

The Baku leadership was emboldened so much by this deal that it even
threatened its closest ally, Turkey, which was negotiating a deal with
Armenia without preconditions. Thus the Ankara government was jolted
into changing its position 180 degrees, by announcing, once again,
that it would not open its border, until the Karabagh problem was
resolved on Azeri terms. Again, the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement
came also to a halt.

External political factors dictate that Armenia take some concrete
actions. In view of Azerbaijan’s military preparation, it is incumbent
on Armenia to arm itself, hoping for the best, but getting ready for
the worst.

Also, historic parallels must teach us a lesson. At this time a show
is in progress by Vartan Petrosian, the eminent Armenian comedian,
who has always a powerful message to the people through his art. This
time around, his comedy is based on the events of 1918-20. He laments
the lost opportunity to hang on to historic Armenian territories,
when victory was within reach. Indeed, at that period, the defeated
Ottoman Army was in retreat while Armenian forces were fresh, well
supplied and well armed. But indecision, betrayal and political naivete
broke down the will to fight and we lost Erzerum, Kars, Ardahan,
Mamakhatoun, Baiburt and Sarighamish, which were all abandoned to
the defeated Turks.

Vartan Petrosian’s comedy, which is appropriately called "Life
Inmates," concludes with the following message: "Oh, Armenians, the
danger is not beyond the mountains. Wake up, don’t sleep. Don’t console
yourself by watching Ararat in your dreams. Close your ranks within
your borders, in your own ‘jail’ because the enemy is waiting for your
loss of sobriety to take over the one-tenth residue of your historic
land with its dwindling population of four and a half persons."

This is a powerful message to our politicians who are engaged in
petty skirmishes. While the enemy is at the gate, the Dashnak party
is calling for the resignation of Foreign Minister Eduard Nalbandian,
directing also the same threat to the president.

Levon Ter-Petrosian’s opposition is calling for the overthrow of the
government "to dismantle the kleptocracy."

With all these historic scenarios repeating in Armenia, why do we blame
the Moscow and Kars Treaties, which shrank the Armenian homeland to its
present size? While the Kemalist government was negotiating the border
treaty with Lenin, the Dashnak party overthrew the newly-established
Soviet government in its 1921 February adventure, which in addition
to costing thousands of lives, deprived the Armenian delegation from
participating in Moscow negotiations, giving a free hand to both
parties to redraw the border map according to their own interests.

While Azerbaijan is rearming itself to resume the military conflict,
our politicians are engaged in their old game. If the current state
of affairs continues, Vartan Petrosian’s prediction will not be a
far-fetched possibility. Yes, indeed this time around the enemy can
take over "one tenth of our historic homeland, with its dwindling
population of four and a half."