RUSSIAN-TURKISH MESSAGE TO EU
Ahmed Hany
American Chronicle
s/view/116013
Aug 25 2009
Some think that separating between economic cooperation and political
tension is possible and they give the Russian-Turkish cooperation
in the 1960s an example when Russia helped Turkey to establish big
metallurgic industry that was a base for the Turkish steel industry
and the heavy industry in general. Others think that when countries
find that the political and military tension harm their long term
interests they seek to establish short and medium term interests to
serve as a ceiling for friction between these countries. They give
the same example as a proof for their view.
Geopolitically both Russia and Turkey have the same vital space in
the Middle East, East Europe and Central Asia. Historically, both
empires fought each other and the conclusion was that both were reduced
to their homeland. Wars between them started as early as 1711. The
Russian role to end the influence of the Ottoman Empire in East Europe
was accompanied by wars against Turkey and Iran to spread influence
in Balkan. Russia took Georgia in 1804 and Armenia in 1827 from the
Persian Empire. The Russian, Turkish and Persian empires never formed
alliances in a formula of two against one but the three were always
at odds. The three empires sought alliances with the European forces
against each other. The European forces played the game to serve
their interests by shifting alliances between the three empires to
put upper limits for their regional and international influence.
The British and French navies helped the Russian navy against the
Egyptian-Turkish navies in Navarino battle in 1827. After Greece became
independent it was clear that revival of the empire was the only
strategy that might save it. Napoleon principal stated a separation
between Turkey and Egypt was a must to end the Eastern Empire. He was
the first who suggested transfer of Jews from Europe to Palestine to
serve this target. This Western strategic principal made the European
forces abort trials of Mohamed Ali to revive the empire in London
Treaty. They also gave the Russian Emperor Nicola the 1st a green
card to force Turkish out of their Danube governorates in East Europe
in 1854. However to put a limit for Russian aspirations they let the
Egyptian army save the Turkish homeland 1854 -1856. Paris Treaty, 1856
was signed to safeguard the land of the Ottoman Empire. Another shift
of alliance happened when they helped Russians again and the result
was San Stefano Treaty 1878 between Russia and the Ottoman Empire that
virtually ended the Turkish influence in Europe by giving independence
to Romania, Serbia and Monte Negro. The Tripartite alliance between
Britain, France and Russia, 1907, forced Turkey to have an alliance
with the Germans and to side with them in WWI. Belford promise, 1917
founded a strategy based on Napoleon principle that served interests
of western powers and Russia to put an end for any trial to revive
any eastern empire on the Southern Russian borders. After WWII,
the Soviet Union that was another Russian Empire was founded between
the Russian homeland and satellite countries in Eastern Europe and
Central Asia. In fact most of these satellite countries were part of
the Ottoman Empire. Therefore the fall of the Soviet Union revived
Turkish dreams of having influence in Central Asia to East Turkistan
that was occupied by China in 1920s.
Both Russia and Turkey have problems with the EU. Russia wants to stop
the spread of NATO, to abort the anti-missile shield and to regain its
influence in Eastern Europe. Within this context Russia was forced
to use its ground force in a war against Georgia. It threatened
to withdraw from the Traditional Weapons Limitation Treaty and to
upgrade its nuclear arms. Russia used oil and gas supplies to Europe
as a weapon. The European responded by Nabco pipeline project that
transport oil and gas from Central Asia bypassing the Russian land.
The German and French veto for Turkish membership in the EU angers
Turkey that still sees itself a European country and one of the most
important countries in NATO. Turkey imports 30% of its oil and 70% of
its gas from Russia. The agreement between Russia and Turkey about the
Southern Stream pipeline balances the effect of the European Nabucco
line. In fact the agreement makes both Russia and Turkey control the
energy supply through pipelines to Europe if they cooperate. There are
high chances that Russia would build the Turkish nuclear reactors. Both
Russia and Turkey have common security interests now. Both do not like
extremism to have a safe haven in Central Asia. Both refuse a Kurdish
state anywhere. Both have cultural interests in central Asia. Despite
being a member in NATO, Turkey is moderate about extension of the
alliance to east and finds that the anti-missile shield is not so
important for global defense. Russia could help Turkey to reconcile
with Armenia, a prerequisite for EU membership.
The message that both want to send to the Europe is that they read
history. They establish bases for their cooperation that may solve
political contradicting views that are still present. For the first
time in recent history Europe finds Turkey and Russia on the same line.
Both Turkey and Russia are important countries to the Arabs. When
one sees Israel shares in military maneuvers with Turkey and the US
and at the same time it sells unmanned warplanes to Russia that gave
a promise to the Hebrew state that it would not take steps to change
military balance, one should ask a simple question. Why do not Arabs
move faster? Turkey is an ally to the US but this did not prevent it
form protecting its interests and playing with the suitable cards to
dissolve refusal for EU membership. Israel is an ally to the US but
it does what its interests dictate to keep Russia from playing active
role in balancing military powers in the region. Arabs are allies to
the US but they ask it to consider their interests. They should play
the cards they have and they have many cards. If they played it right
the US would consider their rights not only in Palestine but also in
the Gulf and Africa.