MASIS MAILYAN: FIVE-DAY WAR SOBERED UP HOTHEADS IN AZERBAIJAN

Information-Analytic Agency NEWS.am, Armenia
Aug 26 2009

15:08 / 08/26/2009A number of important conclusions can be drawn
from the five-day war and resultant recognition of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia by Russia last year in the context of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, Masis Mailyan, the former NKR deputy minister of foreign
affairs, told NEWS.am

"First, the five-day war, with Russia involved in it, sobered up the
hotheads in Azerbaijan, where the warlike rhetoric had been gaining
momentum year by year. During the first hours of the war, when Georgia
was exceeding in strength, Azerbaijan was kind of encouraging Tbilisi’s
actions and making appeals for resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh problem
in a similar way. However, the introduction of the 58th army of Russia
into the conflict zone put an end to that rhetoric. Azerbaijan must
have come to realize that the problem is not to be resolved by force.

"Secondly, it was for the first time since 1991 that two new states had
been recognized in the post-Soviet area, which was against the will of
the former "parent state." As we know, after the USSR collapsed, the
international community made a purely political decision to recognize
only the 15 former Soviet republics as independent states, while
the rest entities (autonomies, regions, etc..) remained outside that
process. During that period, for fear of anarchy in the post-Soviet
area, they only recognized 15 states. In 2008, seventeen years later,
the process of recognizing state entities of the "second level"
got under way. The process is of great interest to Nagorno-Karabakh,
as precedents are being set opening up new opportunities for the NKR
to get internationally recognized in defiance of Azerbaijan, which
is not ready to recognize the Nagorno-Karabakh people’s fundamental
rights. Interestingly, a few months before Russia recognized Abkhazia
and South Ossetia, last February, a precedent was set in former
Yugoslavia: Kosovo was recognized. We can conclude that neither the
West nor Russia – both the centers of global politics – rules out
the possibility of recognizing new states in defiance of the former
"parent states."

"The experience of settling the conflicts in the Balkan Peninsula
showed Russia that it is only ethno-territorial division that makes
peaceful and conflict-free co-existence possible. At present, more
and more countries interested in settling conflict in peaceful ways
arrive at the conclusion that it is much more &’secure and cheaper’
to recognize &’unrecognized’ states’ right to political sovereignty
than subdue them to hostile &’parent states.’ They understand that
subduing them will result in new global and regional security problems.

&’Nagorno-Karabakh is also interested in the mechanism of ensuring
the security of unrecognized states, as the issue of security of
Artsakh’s native Armenian population (autochthons) is the cornerstone
of our relations with Azerbaijan. International recognition is a
most important factor of security for Nagorno-Karabakh – not only a
military, but also political and diplomatic one.

‘After recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia,
Russia introduced additional troops into the territories. An agreement
establishing military bases was signed, which means that no military
way of settling the conflict is possible. One can hardly expect small
Georgia to attack Russia or its military bases. So the security of
the territories in question is guaranteed.

Another important lesson for the NKR is peacemakers’ having been
incapable of putting an end to hostilities in South Ossetia and
ensuring the population’s security. That peace-making mechanism
proved ineffective. It was not until Russia introduced its regular
troops into the region under the pretext of protecting its citizens
that the situation was brought under control," Mailyan said.