YERVAND BOZOYAN: ONE-WAY ORIENTATION PREGNANT WITH PROBLEMS

Information-Analytic Agency NEWS.am
Aug 26 2009
Armenia

17:06 / 08/26/2009"On the one hand, Russia’s recognition of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia a year ago had a positive effect. On the other
hand, it aroused the West’s serious concern over the possibility
of Russia’s making a similar step toward Nagorno-Karabakh," the
political scientist Yervand Bozoyan told NEWS. am. As to what was
Nagorno-Karabakh’s benefit from discontinuing its participation in
the Russia-initiated meetings of the leaders of unrecognized states,
he said: "We all understand that Russia’s recognition of the two states
was a response to the West’s recognition of Kosovo. By taking that step
Russia also prevented Georgia’s integration into the Western agencies,
including NATO, as NATO is most cautious over the integration of states
having territorial problems. In fact, Abkahzis and Ossets received that
&’present’ from Russia as a result of those geopolitical processes,"
Bozoyan said.

As regards Nagorno-Karabakh, the expert said that "it would be most
dangerous if the Armenian side showed one-way orientation – either to
Russia or to the West – as we must be interested in [Nagorno-Karabakh]
being recognized by both Russia and the West." Bozoyan is sure
that the precedents set in Kosovo or Abkhazia do not hold good
for Nagorno-Karabakh. "Kosovo was explicitly West-oriented, while
Abkhazia and South Ossetia were explicitly Russia-oriented. As regards
Nagorno-Karabakh, if we show explicit orientation to one of the sides,
we may encounter serious problems," said Bozoyan. He believes Russia
is not considering Nagorno-Karabakh from the same aspect as Abkhazia
and South Ossetia. Russia is demonstrating it recognized those states
because of Georgia’s Western orientation.

Bozoyan referred to RF Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who stated that
the Nagorno-Karabakh problem is radically different from the Abkhazian
and South Ossetian ones, as no actual aggression has been committed
against Nagorno-Karabakh. "That is, Russia does not want to worsen
its relations with Azerbaijan, making the following reservation:
if Azerbaijan does not change its orientation in the West’s favor,
Russia will not show the same attitude to the Nagorno-Karabakh problem
as to the Abkhazian and South Ossetian ones," the expert said.