NEW WAR POSSIBLE – MOANING AND TRAP
168 Zham
July 14 2009
Armenia
Some political figures have given the following assessment to the
events unfolding around [Azerbaijan’s breakaway] Nagornyy Karabakh
[republic – NKR] over the past few days.
Basic Principles of Karabakh settlement elaborated by OSCE Minsk Group
Last Friday [10 July], the three presidents of the OSCE Minsk Group
[set up to mediate in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict], Barack
Obama, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Dmitriy Medvedev, made a statement at the
G8 summit in Italy, stressing that they would continue to support the
presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to finalize the basic principles
and complete the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. In this context,
as is already known, the revised version of the Madrid principles,
the so called Basic Principles, have been published. [They are
as followed]: 1. The return of [Azerbaijan’s Armenian-occupied]
territories surrounding Nagornyy Karabakh under Azerbaijan’s control;
2. An interim status for Nagornyy Karabakh providing guarantees
for security and self-governance; 3. A corridor linking Armenia to
Nagornyy Karabakh; 4. The determination of a final legal status of
Nagornyy Karabakh through a legally binding expression of will; 5. The
right of all internally displaced persons and refugees to return to
their former places of residence; 6. International security guarantees
that would include a peacekeeping operation. In their statement, the
presidents assure Armenia and Azerbaijan that existing divergences
will be overcome and give final agreement will be reached on the
Basic Principles.
Supposedly, this very document will be submitted to [Armenian
President] Serzh Sargsyan and [Azerbaijani President] Ilham Aliyev
in Moscow on 17 July. Armenian Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbandyan has
already welcomed this statement at the meeting with Deputy Secretary of
State James Steinberg, informing him that talks are already in progress
around some details: "The statement says unambiguously that Karabakh’s
status will be decided on the basis of the will of Karabakh’s people,
which will legally binding. It is important that the overland link
between Karabakh and Armenia is touched on. It is also important that
security issues are mentioned", Nalbandyan said on Saturday [11 July].
Basic Principles to inflict "irreparable damage" on Armenia’s interests
The statement by the three co-chairing presidents’ and the published
Basic Principles have not been accepted unambiguously in Armenia and
the NKR political circles: "If passed and implemented, these principles
will inflict irreparable damage on the national interests of the NKR
and Armenia", former NKR deputy foreign minister Masis Mailyan said.
Basic Principles "make new war possible"
In the meantime, the NKR government has said that it will not sign
any document drawn up without its participation. The Armenian
Revolutionary Federation [ARF] Dashnaktsutyun is also against
the Madrid principles: "We are convinced that the conflict should
be settled through negotiations and concessions. However, these
concessions should be appropriate, implemented simultaneously, and
part of one package. They are talking about unilateral concessions,
not mutual concessions here. Even if there are mutual concessions,
they are neither equivalent nor simultaneous. For example, if we
are told to cede 140 square km of land to open the railway, it will
not be appropriate, because the railroad might be closed and a war
will become necessary to return the land", said the director of
the ARF Bureau’s Armenian Trial and Political Affairs Office, Kiro
Manoyan. He thinks that this document and the appeal of the three
presidents do not change the logic of the settlement of the Artsakh
[Karabakh] conflict. Manoyan also thinks that it has been drawn up to
satisfy Turkey and enable it to tell the Azerbaijani authorities that
there progress has been made on the NKR issue, hence, it [Turkey]
can establish relations with Armenia. Manoyan believes that such
document will make a new war possible. He thinks that the talks need
a new format, i.e. going back to the old format to some extent. "The
NKR should participate in the talks as a full-fledged party to the
conflict. It should participate in decision making instead of being
presented a ready decision for it to say ‘yes’ or ‘no’", Manoyan said,
adding that the NKR and Armenia should take pragmatic steps. We want
to remind that Manoyan represents a party, which has struggled over
the past 10 years against Robert Kocharyan’s foreign policy of NKR’s
exclusion from the negotiating process.
Karabakh’s interests not represented at negotiations
Stepan Safaryan, a member of the National Assembly from the Heritage
party, is also against this proposal. The MP "cannot imagine" how
Nalbandyan can "welcome the bargain on the NKR’s constitutional
territories" and "then keep constantly moaning over the need for the
NKR’s involvement in the talks and later claim that the proposal has
been made perfect and that an updated version is to be submitted
shortly. This is not permissible. The NKR authorities have to
think seriously about their inconsistent behaviour and statements",
Safaryan said. The MP supposed that either the Armenian authorities
were very weak and timid to insist on the NKR’s participation in the
negotiations or it was not beneficial for them. He reminded that the
French co-chair the OSCE Minsk Group, Bernard Fassier, had said several
times that the NKR had been excluded from the negotiations according
to the desire of the Armenian president. The co-chair has also said
that it is easier to estrange Karabakh from the talks than to get
it involved again. The Russian co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group,
Yuriy Merzlyakov, said that the NKR’s participation in the process
was desirable. It seems that the co-chairs are not against it and
the Armenian authorities have to insist on it.
Are the co-chairing countries really interested in quickly settling the
Karabakh problem? To what extent do the interests of these countries
match in this conflict? Safaryan thinks that Russia and the USA are
equally interested in speeding up the settlement of the conflict,
because they want to get decisions from Azerbaijan on issues that
are relevant for them. Azerbaijan wants its territories liberated in
exchange for the implementation of the South Caucasus corridor project
and hinders Russia from purchasing gas. "Azerbaijan has openly said
that it will agree to that project, if the interested country returns
the territories. Correspondingly, there are different interests for
solutions: e.g. Russia and the West have different approaches to the
composition of peacekeeping forces. We have to take the superpowers’
interests normally, but we cannot understand the absence of Armenian
interests. We cannot blame others for protecting their interests. It
is another issue where the NKR’s interests are and who is representing
them. The duet of [former Armenian Foreign Minister] Oskanyan and
[former Armenian President Robert] Kocharyan duet is to be blamed
for it and the Sargsyan-Nalbandyan duet agreed to stay in that trap",
Safaryan.said.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
