POLITICAL AUTUMN WILL BE JUST LIKE AUTUMN
Hakob Badalyan

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13:06:13 – 28/08/2009

What will the political autumn be like? Everyone is already used
to this question. Even though everyone knows the answer, they
nevertheless ask this question as if they are doing their sacred duty,
otherwise on dooms day it may turn out that they had not asked that
question. Surely, however, the "doomsday" will not be in autumn.

Autumn will be just like spring and summer because almost all the
political subjects say the autumn developments will be conditioned
by the processes or process of the Armenian and Turkish relations and
the settlement of the Karabakh conflict. And it means that in autumn
in Armenia the political passions will be the same as in spring or
in summer because if the situation does not improve for Armenia in
the process of the Armenian and Turkish relations or the settlement
of the Karabakh conflict, it will not get worse enough to cause
crucial change in the home political situation. There will be some
developments regarding both the Armenian and Turkish relations and
the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, there will be new meetings
at different levels, Serge Sargsyan will visit Turkey, or he will
not visit. These will hardly cause a breakthrough in the political
life at home to attract public attention.

There is no such potential in the economic decline either. Economy
is declining lower but in autumn it will not get to the point of a
breakthrough in the public moods. At best, the subjects of politics
which are not in government and are honest or declared opposition will
once again forecast an inevitable economic blast in spring. Perhaps,
however, nothing will happen because several millions more will be
borrowed, which places Armenia under a serious loan burden but instead
frees the government from the expectation of a social riot. And this
is important for the government, not the loan burden of Armenia.

Hence, the key to home political activity is in the hands of the home
political subjects rather than the external developments. If they
are waiting for serious external failures, they need not wait because
there will not be such, at least in the upcoming few months. Moreover,
if these subjects are unable to use the existing failures to activate
home political life, their attempts to activate home political life
based on new failures will be just as futile.

Hence, the home political subjects must seek preconditions in
themselves, at least differing from the government in this way, which
looks for the answers to questions and solutions of problems outside,
afterwards using them for propaganda at home. As to how they should
seek, it depends on their talent. It is clear that it is difficult,
it is complicated but this is the reason why not just everyone can do
politics, although in Armenia "anyone" seems to go into politics. That
is why the Armenian politics arouses more questions than gives answers
to the questions. Hence, the answer to the question "what the political
autumn will be like?" is "the political autumn will be alike".