AZERBAIJAN CONCERNED ABOUT TURKISH-ARMENIAN RAPPROACHMENT

Today’s Zaman
Sept 2 2009
Turkey

There is an increasing concern in Azerbaijan with respect to
the attempt to establish diplomatic relations between Turkey and
Armenia. Experts believe anti-Turkish sentiments in Azerbaijan
may grow.

The Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry made a statement yesterday on its Web
site saying, "In principle, it is Turkey’s sovereign right to establish
relations with Armenia." However, the statement also emphasized that
the issue has a direct relation to Azerbaijan’s national interests
and "the opening of the border is in direct opposition to Azerbaijani
national interests."

Recalling Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s speech before
Azerbaijani deputies at the parliament in mid-May, the statement
reads: "The prime minister reassured Azerbaijan that the borders were
closed due to Armenia’s occupation of Azerbaijani territories. In
this respect, Turkey will open the borders only if Armenia withdraws
from Azerbaijan’s occupied territories." While the statement did not
ensure that Turkey’s attempt to normalize relations with Armenia was
on track, it clearly stated Turkey’s promise not to open the borders.

Elkhan Pokhulov, head of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry’s media
department, told Today’s Zaman, "Azerbaijan considers the relations
between Turkey and Armenia as relations between two sovereign states,
yet Azerbaijan’s national interests should be considered." Pokhulov
also added that Turkey has declared many times that there cannot
be an opening of borders. "If it opens," Pokhulov stressed, "it is
in opposition to Azerbaijan’s national interests." Addressing the
question of whether Turkey consulted with Azerbaijan with respect to
the issue, Pokhulov said: "Turkey and Azerbaijan constantly inform
each other of developments. However, we have no information about
whether Turkey informed us of this particular policy."

"The situation in Azerbaijan will be even worse," said RövÅ~_en
Ä°brahimov, a professor at Baku Qafqaz University. "It was too sudden,"
he said. Two weeks ago Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan vowed that
he would not attend the soccer match between Armenia and Turkey
in October. Noting the troubling trend with Armenia, the Turkish
Foreign Ministry has decided to restart negotiations with Armenia to
establish close diplomatic ties. "I believe this is the true success
of [Serzh] Sarksyan. Who can now claim that there is a single reason
why Turkey should keep the borders closed? The next step is to
institute diplomatic relations and then open the borders. Turkey
de facto recognizes Armenia and now will de jure recognize it,"
he said. He also argued that the Azerbaijani public believes that
it once put pressure on Turkey and succeeded and it may do the same
again. Questioning the future of the Nabucco project, Ä°brahimov said:
"This fact may also put Nabucco in jeopardy. Azerbaijan may think of
selling all its gas to Russia."

Vefa Guluzade, a prominent expert and former national security advisor
to late Azerbaijani President Heydar Aliyev, said Turkey is playing
a dangerous game. Speaking to Today’s Zaman, Guluzade said, "Turkey
could not stand up to pressure from Russia and the US and thereby has
decided to start the negotiations again." Recalling Hillary Clinton’s
telephone conversation with Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu,
Guluzade claimed that instead of behaving on the basis of Clinton’s
promises, the Turkish government should instead act following the
fulfillment of Clinton’s promises. Clinton had previously said the
American administration would help resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Guluzade said her promises are not real and that during Bill
Clinton’s tenure, the American administration was too fragile for
a strong Armenian lobby in the US. Guluzade also concluded that the
Azerbaijani public will explicitly respond to the recent agreement
between Turkey and Armenia and that there will be huge disappointment
among the Azerbaijani public. The government, in contrast, may keep
silent due to international conjecture.