ARMENIA-TURKEY DEAL A STEP FORWARD
By Mariam Harutunian
The News International
Sept 2 2009
Pakistan
Armenia and Turkey have taken a major step forward by agreeing to
a plan for establishing diplomatic ties, experts said on Tuesday,
but the deal does not yet mark an end to decades of hostility.
Domestic opposition, objections from Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan and
lingering distrust between the two countries could still derail their
efforts to overcome nearly a century of acrimony, analysts said. Most
nonetheless agreed that the creation of a timetable for establishing
ties and re-opening their long-sealed border was an historic moment.
"It is a very, very serious step towards the completion of the
negotiating process, and the questions of the border re-opening and
the establishment of diplomatic ties will be solved very soon…. It
is a matter of six months to a year," Yerevan-based political analyst
Alexander Iskandarian said.
The agreement announced on Monday foresees the signing of two protocols
on establishing diplomatic relations and developing bilateral ties
following six weeks of "internal political consultations". Turkey has
long refused to establish diplomatic links with Armenia over Yerevan’s
efforts to have World War I-era massacres of Armenians by Ottoman Turks
recognised as genocide — a label Turkey strongly rejects. Turkey
also closed its border with Armenia in 1993 in solidarity with ally
Azerbaijan over Yerevan’s backing of ethnic Armenian separatists in
the breakaway Nagorny Karabakh region.
Analysts said the agreement of a precise timetable was a sign of the
seriousness of the plan.
"This is fantastic news, it seems these are very serious declarations,
a very serious timetable," said Hugh Pope, a Turkey analyst for the
International Crisis Group. "Huge progress has been made, starting
with intellectuals and academics and then with some business people
getting involved and even ex-officials have been trying to get Turkey
away from the old nationalist rhetoric," he said.
Washington and Paris on Monday warmly welcomed the deal, which
followed a year of Swiss-brokered talks and a historic visit by
Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Armenia for a football match last
September. Still, it is unclear how long the process of ratification
could take and Turkey has already cast some doubts on the re-opening
of the border.
"At the moment opening the border is not foreseen and it is not the
priority," Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu told Turkey’s NTV
channel late on Monday. He later added that Turkey would take no action
"that would hurt the interests of Azerbaijan".
Azerbaijani foreign ministry spokesman Elkhan Polukhov said on Tuesday
that Baku was confident Ankara would not agree to open the border
without a deal on Nagorny Karabakh.
"Azerbaijan’s position is based on numerous statements from
high-ranking officials in Turkey on the question of opening the
Armenian-Turkish border," he told AFP. "The opening of the border
without the settlement of the Nagorny Karabakh conflict would
contradict the interests of Azerbaijan." Turkey’s immediate raising of
Azerbaijan’s interests following Monday’s announcement could signal
a step back on the border issue, Armenian political analyst Sergei
Shakarian said.
"The border will not be re-opened, not within six weeks or six months,
or in two years, because the Karabakh issue will not be resolved within
this time," he said. The agreement could also face strong domestic
opposition in both countries, analysts said, and the ratification
process could drag on.
"It is a very positive development, but of course we cannot say that
the thing is in the bag," former Turkish diplomat Ilter Turkmen told
CNN-Turk television.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
