ANKARA ACTUALLY CHOSE ARMENIA AND THE WORLD COMMUNITY AS PARTNERS
Karine Ter-Sahakyan

PanARMENIAN.Net
01.09.2009 GMT+04:00

The ethnic policy of Turkey is as follows: the borderland is mostly
inhabited with Kurds, while, all the villages located straight at
the Armenian boundary are populated exclusively with Turks.

The President of Armenia will, all the same, attend the football
match in Turkey, what was to be expected. Publication of the Protocols
with mandatory time frames put Turkey in a very difficult position,
and to some extent Armenia gained her end, without stepping back from
her stance on the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations with no
preconditions. It is exactly what is most important at this time. No
less important is the fact that the Protocols contain nothing on the
Karabakh conflict and the Armenian Genocide.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ But in this case we are more interested
in Azerbaijan’s position, which can be briefly described as
stupor. According to some fragmentary information, Baku politicians
are now in confusion: Ankara has actually chosen Armenia and the
world community as partners, having accurately calculated that under
such circumstances it is better to strive for regional leadership
rather than to be held hostage to the short-sighted policy of Ilham
Aliyev. And though the choice in favor of Armenia is made under the
pressure of circumstances, the good point is that despite everything
it is made. Baku has finally realized that Karabakh is never going to
belong to Azerbaijan in spite of the continuous statements of Ilham
Aliyev. In principle, Aliyev can now do nothing but "calm down" his
people after decades of lies, claiming that very soon the Armenians
will return all the 7 regions and NKR into the bargain… Everything
ended on August 31, 2009. In this regard we may assume that Armenian
diplomacy won another round, but it is still too early to declare the
final victory. Diplomatic relations will be established, the border
will be opened, but Turkey will continue to deny the Armenian Genocide
and will attempt to intervene in the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict, although presently there can be no question on conflict
regulation. There is no conflict as such; it was solved 18 years ago
by the people of NKR and was solved without assistance.

Surely it was not by accident that Russia and the USA recalled their
OSCE Minsk Group mediators in August and appointed no new ones. Does
this mean that the Minsk Group format has already outlived its capacity
and now we need something new that would make Aliyev sign a peace
treaty with Stepanakert? Exclusively with Stepanakert and not with
Armenia as some people still hope in Baku.

But let us revert to the Armenian-Turkish relations, or rather to the
prospects of their normalization. Fear of the Armenian society over the
issue of opening the border is quite reasonable because once the border
is opened a flow of Turkish citizens is expected to pour into Armenia
and become the fifth Kurdish-Turkish colony, which could threaten the
national security of Armenia. Boundary must be opened, no doubt in it,
but there must be some restrictions. For example, the Turkish-Georgian
boundary is open from 8 a.m. to 8 p.m., with time restrictions imposed
by the Turkish side. Something similar must be done in our case;
moreover, the initiative must proceed from Yerevan. The population of
Eastern Turkey shows rather a positive attitude towards opening the
border; however, here too Ankara shows her prudence so typical of
her. Such is the ethnic policy of Turkey: the borderland is mostly
inhabited with Kurds, while, all the villages located straight at
the Armenian boundary are populated exclusively with Turks. So
the Kurds, who are looking forward to normal relations with the
Armenians, will inevitably have to confront the Turkish population,
which is not really eager to normalize relations. Nevertheless, Turkey
views the Armenians and the Kurds as potential allies in the struggle
against the central power. Not by chance on the streets of Van do the
gendarmes walk around with sub-machine-guns even in daytime. And not
only in Van. The entire Eastern Turkey, i.e. Western Armenia is like
a cauldron, ready to explode any moment, and the major problem of
Ankara is to prevent such a scenario. Otherwise Turkey will simply
collapse. And it is also one of the reasons why Turkey decided to
take such a step as the establishment of relations with Armenia,
no matter what it may bring about in the future.