ONLY OPENING BORDER NOT STIMULATE ECONOMY WITHOUT AZERBAIJAN
Hurriyet Daily News
Sept 2 2009
Turkey
Turkey and Armenia’s efforts to reconcile their differences will
relieve some tension in the Caucasus, but a boom in trade from
reopening the border can only take place if Azerbaijan is included in
the equation and that is dependant on unraveling the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem, according to Turkish leaders
Despite the historic step taken by Turkey and Armenia, local
businessmen and experts warn that only a comprehensive solution that
includes Azerbaijan could boost economic and trade opportunities for
the region.
"It is quite important to find a parallel solution for the
Azerbaijan-Armenian track. We actually think Turkish-Armenian
reconciliation will accelerate the Nagorno-Karabakh solution,"
Kaan Soyak, co-chairman of the Turkish-Armenian Business Development
Council, or TABDC, said Wednesday in an interview with the Hurriyet
Daily News & Economic Review.
The normalization process is expected to have an enormous impact
on trade between the border towns of the two countries. Igdır,
which is linked to Armenia through the border gate Alican, is one of
them. "The border trade has become the main actor of the local economy
as livestock and agriculture production decreased," Kamil Arslan,
president of Igdır Industry and Trade Chamber told the Daily News
on Wednesday.
The exclusion of Azerbaijan from the peace process would be the worst
scenario for local tradesmen, according to Arslan. Pointing out that
many local businessmen have deals in autonomous Azeri areas such
as Nahchivan, Arslan said: "In such a case they might lose their
current market."
"It takes 10 to 12 days to send our goods to Azerbaijan and
Turkmenistan through Georgia. However, it will only take four hours
to export through Armenia. That’s why we insist on a comprehensive
solution that includes the Azerbaijanis."
He advocated Armenia had no promising potential, saying: "Trade only
with Armenia will not be profitable. It doesn’t have medium or large
industry. Its economy is weak with no significant production. We
already sell our goods to them thanks to our dealers across the
country."
"But if a transit corridor linking Igdır to Baku is opened, then
our trade volume will be doubled" he said.
Economic growth to stem ‘democratic move’
Turkish government has nowadays been working on a "democratic move,"
also known as a Kurdish initiative, but it will fail without economic
growth in the region, Soyak said.
"An economic initiative is needed in eastern and southeastern Anatolia
and I believe that reconciliation with Armenia will promise it. You
can reach nowhere through only political campaigns without financial
solutions," Soyak said.
Richard Giragosian, director of the Armenian Center for National
and International Studies, or ACNIS, voiced the same opinion,
saying: "Opening its closed border with Armenia would constitute a
new strategic opportunity for galvanizing economic activity in the
impoverished eastern regions of Turkey, which could play a key role in
the economic stabilization of the already restive Kurdish-populated
eastern regions and thus meet a significant national security
imperative of countering the root causes of Kurdish terrorism and
separatism with economic opportunity."
Turkey will also offer Armenia not only a way to overcome its regional
isolation and marginalization, but also a bridge to larger markets
crucial for economic growth and development, he said.
Promising projects to boost bilateral economic ties
Border trade isn’t the only key element to boost bilateral relations,
according to TABDC’s Soyak. It seems that the tourism sector will be
an initial driving force. Approximately 400,000 to 500,000 Armenians
visit their homeland once a year and they are quite interested in
small tours to historical attractions in eastern Turkey. Initially
$60 million is expected even if 200,000 of them stay for three days.
He said there could be a railway linking Turkey to the Caucasus, the
Central Asian states, Russia and China will be realized, strengthening
Turkey’s geostrategic position.
Turkish builders can invest in sub-construction projects in the
neighboring country. Armenia can provide natural gas and electricity
since it became an energy hub in the southern Caucasus, Soyak said.
And lastly, the textile sector, severely affected by Russian customs,
may utilize a free-trade agreement between Russia and Armenia if its
production is partly completed there, he said.