WHAT DOES THE RECENT PROTOCOL WITH ARMENIA MEAN?
By Gokhan Bacik

Today’s Zaman
Sept 2 2009
Turkey

Turkish-Armenian relations have entered a new phase with the
declaration of a protocol for the establishment of diplomatic
ties. This protocol, which goes beyond the mutual gestures and
symbolic steps taken thus far, will lead to a text that is able to
create some concrete results that could potentially become the objects
of international law.

Naturally, this should be seen as a strong indication of an
announcement concerning the will and intentions of the parties. The
ongoing friction and clashes between the parties since World War I
and the overall situation of the Caucasus region will be changed
after the implementation of the protocol. In a way, this sends a
strong and decisive signal to resolve history, which has been frozen.

The most striking aspect of the protocol, which was partially published
in the media, is undoubtedly the mutual agreement concerning the
opening of the common border within two months after the protocol
is implemented, as explained in Article 1. This announcement of
the intention of the parties confirms that the current stage of
Armenian-Turkish relations is irreversible, considering that the
preservation of the status quo with respect to the borders was
perceived as the biggest obstacle and barrier before making any
progress in bilateral relations. Many attempts have been inconclusive
because of this barrier. After opening the border, an important
obstacle that serves as a tool to perpetuate the problem will have
been eliminated. More importantly, the protocol underlines that the
parties will make their archives and historical resources available
to researchers. With such an engagement, the parties declared that
they have adopted a lenient and constructive approach with respect
to such a delicate issue. Lastly, the parties’ eagerness to open
diplomatic missions as underlined in the protocol should be mentioned.

How should this briefly explained text be interpreted? Above all,
this short text gives the impression that the parties are eager
for an integration deal. In addition to resolving their problems,
the parties want to cooperate in the fields of culture, education,
economy and transportation. The reason for the emphasis on such
concepts in a protocol between two countries whose border still
remains closed is obvious: Turkey and Armenia need each other,
considering the recently developed projects that will affect the
destiny and prosperity of the region. However, two points should be
underlined: Turkey and Armenia are not equals in terms of international
relations. For this reason, assuming that the protocol will work
well, it would not be wrong to argue that Armenia will fall into the
sphere of influence of Turkey. Undoubtedly, this will have serious
consequences for the entire Caucasus region as well as for Russia and
other actors. Secondly, Armenia gets back into international relations
with the protocol. At the moment, Armenia is practically separate
from the international system because of its isolated profile and
weak economy, despite officially being a part of the international
world. Relations between Armenia and the international system are
carried out via limited channels controlled by Russia. Like Syria
rejoined the international system via Turkey, Armenia is trying the
same means to integrate with the global world. This may have serious
impacts on the culture and political life of Armenia.

Thirdly, Armenian political elites who attempted to improve relations
with Turkey likely initiated a process in their country. Rapprochement
with a country like Turkey, which is obviously able to integrate
and communicate with the world and has visible influence in the
web of international relations, will lead to some radical changes
in the social and political structure of Armenia. The sub-region
that has been emerging under the lead of Turkey is expanding to
include Armenia. Fourthly, close ties with a country like Turkey,
whose economy attracts a great deal of attention, will provoke the
emergence of a more liberal environment in the Caucasus. Considering
relations between Turkey and Georgia and the ties between Russia
and Georgia, this protocol may start a process of liberalization
in the entire Caucasus region. The emergence of an effective and
influential Turkish presence that will touch upon Armenia will trigger
the political fault lines of the entire region.

The protocol has started a fairly critical psychological process
concerning relations between Turkey and Armenia. It should be recalled
that any international problem may create fertile ground for some
political actors. For this reason, it is possible to expect attempts
to disrupt the process of rapprochement between the parties. There are
actors whose survival depends on the presence and substance of such
problems in both Turkey and Armenia. These actors will try to rely
on propaganda suggesting that the protocol is detrimental to their
national interests. There is one way to deal with such obstacles:
acting swiftly and protecting the process against external harm.

*Assistant Professor Gökhan Bacık is an instructor at Fatih
University.