AZERBAIJAN WILL MOST EFFECTIVELY USE THREAT OF MASSIVE USE OF FORCE: EXPERT AT UKRAINE-BASED CENTER FOR POLITICAL STUDIES AND CONFLICT SCIENCE

Today.Az
s/55225.html
Sept 2 2009
Azerbaijan

Director of Ukraine-based Center for Political Studies and Conflict
Science Mikhail Pogrebinski spoke in an interview with Day.Az.

Day.Az: Recently, development of GUAM, which unites also Azerbaijan
and Ukraine, has experienced some stagnation recently. How effective
is the cooperation between Azerbaijan and Ukraine in the format of
this organization?

Mikhail Pogrebinski: Inefficiency of GUAM is a recognized fact. Even
experts, who initially with enthusiasm accepted creation of this
organization as a tool for joint "friendship against Russia", now
describe it as a "mirage". Meantime, Ukraine, of course, is very
interested in cooperating with Azerbaijan.

Q: Azerbaijan does not rule out military solution to the Karabakh
conflict. How real is the resumption of hostilities in the region?

A: Although I am not a military expert, it is obvious to everyone
how important efforts Azerbaijan has made in terms of procurement
of weapons, including in the sphere of military-technical
cooperation with Ukraine. Azerbaijani armed forces enhance power
constantly. The authorities have determination to use the ultima
ratio regum. Azerbaijan’s military budget significantly exceeds that
of Armenia.

At the same time, at least according to the published data,
the superiority of Azerbaijan’s ammunition over Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh forces does not apply to not all heavy weapons. For
example, it is superior over armored vehicles and aircraft, but as
I understand it, not over artillery.

Moreover, military experts believe that confrontation in steep
terrain has significant features that reduce significance of heavy
equipment. Much, of course, depends on training and readiness of
personnel, but here it is up to professional military experts to
judge the balance of power between Azerbaijan and Armenia.

Q: Armenia, in turn, increases cooperation within CSTO counting on
the support of the organization in event of a new war in Karabakh. Do
you admit the possibility of such intervention on the part of this
organization?

A: Of course, while in Kiev, it is difficult to judge the depth of
the commitments to Armenia, which Moscow claimed within the CSTO in
the event of extraordinary situations. Perhaps these commitments are
very significant and this may seriously affect the balance of forces
in the region.

Major armed conflict can, without doubt, seriously mix cards in
"the big game" carried out by non-regional players in the Caucasus
– Moscow, Washington, Brussels and Ankara. The latter, especially
Washington and Ankara, are interested in ensuring safety of certain
oil and gas pipelines lobbied by them. It is known that, for example,
during the clashes in South Ossetia energy projects Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum were in a rather vulnerable situation.

Therefore, it seems to me that the Azerbaijani side will seek to
most effectively use threat of massive use of force emphasizing the
determination of its intentions, especially with regard to the fate
of regions surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and at the same time clearly
estimating possible consequences of each hard step.