DASHNAKTSUTIUN’S UPCOMING PROTESTS DICTATED BY NON-CONSTRUCTIVITY: EXPERTS

Trend
Sept 3 2009
Azerbaijan

Opposition Dashnaktsutiun party’s protests are dictated by its
toughness and unconstructive, which could lead Armenia to negative
consequences, experts said.

"Dashnaksare hardline and unconstructive; therefore it is no
surprise that they will continue to object to the Foreign Ministry’s
policy. Armenian diaspora community, supporting "Dashnaktsutiun",
does not work towards the interests of the Armenian state," European
expert on the South Caucasus, Amanda Akcakoca, said.

The Dashnaks intend to present their claim at the opposition meeting in
Yerevan on September 2. Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and Armenian-Turkish
relations will be discussed there, Head of the Ay Data Central Office
and the ARF Political Affairs Bureau, Kiro Manoyan, ARKA agency said.

The "Dashnaktsutiun" Armenian party continues to insist on
the resignation of Armenian Minister of Foreign Affairs Edward
Nalbandian. The ARF said that events occurring around Armenia and
Karabakh have extremely dangerous tendencies in the context of national
state interests.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan
lost all of Nagorno-Karabakh except for Shusha and Khojali in December
1991. In 1992-93, Armenian armed forces occupied Shusha, Khojali and 7
districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan and Armenia signed
a ceasefire in 1994. The co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia,
France, and the U.S. – are currently holding the peace negotiations.

Several experts said that the ‘Dashnaktsutiun’ influences on Armenian
policy. But it is likely to negatively affect Armenian foreign policy.

"The ‘Dashnaktsutiun’ has been already exerting pressure that limits
variants of Armenian authorities’ policy which are under opposition’s
pressure in Armenia," Director, Armenian Center for National and
International Studies (ACNIS), Richard Giragosian, said.

"Since the April decision by the leadership of the "Armenian
Revolutionary Federation" (ARF) party, or "Dashnaktsutiun" party, to
leave the pro-government ruling coalition, the Dashnaktsutiun party has
become very critical of two specific areas of Armenian foreign policy:
the Nagorno Karabagh issue and the diplomatic process of engagement
between Armenia and Turkey," Giragosian told Trend News via E-mail.

Giragosian said that opposition, especially, the "Dashnaktsutiun"
standing against two major pillars of current Armenian foreign policy,
clearly enhances pressure on the Armenian government.

Whatever steps are taken by Armenia in these two important matters,
it is fundamental to understand that the Foreign Minister is not the
main decision maker, as regards Armenian foreign policy, expert on
South Caucasus, Lichinia Simao, said.

She said that the President is de facto the decision maker in these
issues, and therefore a possible resignation of the Edward Nalbandian
would not change radically the course of the Armenian foreign policy.

"Most likely we will continue to see a constant adjustment of the
ambitious goals of normalisation of Turkish-Armenian relations and the
resolution of the Karabakh conflict based on the Madrid principles,
according to the domestic shifts of power in Armenia," expert on
South Caucasus, a PhD candidate at the University of Coimbra, Simao,
told Trend News via E-mail.

The current process of normalization of relations between Armenia
and Turkey has been largely condemned by the Dasknaks.

Position on Armenian foreign policy, namely on the conflict over
Nagorno Karabakh and relations with Turkey, can be considered strongly
nationalistic and conservative, she said.

Observers said that Dashnaktsutiun’s position, supported by the World
Armenian lobby, is a non-constructive and can lead to unfortunate
consequences.

"It is veryclear that it isin Armenia’s own interests to have a
resolution to the Karabakh conflict sooner rather than later as well
as having normalization of relations with Turkey," European expert
on the South Caucasus, Amanda Akcakoca told Trend News over phone
from Brussels.

Unfortunately, Armenian diaspora community does not work towards the
interests of the Armenian state. They have their own agenda which is
not based on realities, this in turns makes itdifficult for Yerevan
to act freely without pressure, she said.

"Nagorno Karabakh, as stressed in 4 UN resolutions is part of
Azerbaijan. This is not going to change and any solution will be
based on the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan," expert said.

She said that Dashnack’s policy is not at all in line with this and
it therefore counterproductive to say the least.

Simao said that the mediation process has been kept very secret and
concessions have generally been regarded as a defeat. "The Dasknaks
has refused to accept the Madrid principles as valid framework for the
solution of the conflict and has been gathering support within Nagorno
Karabakh, publicly calling for the inclusion of the non-recognized
republic in the official negotiations," she said.

However, Turkish expert Sinan Ogan thinks that Dashnaks’ radical
statements will not affect the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict and normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations, as the
party has no support of the Armenian population.

"The Armenian authorities are not under the influence of Dashnaks, but
rather listen to outside political forces. If the process of improving
Turkish-Armenian relations slows down in future, not Dashnaks, but
the world Armenian lobby, opposing the normalization of relations,
will be guilty of it", he said.

Ogan said that if Armenia wants to achieve progress in foreign policy
and relations with its neighbors, it must get rid of dictates of the
Armenian lobby. "This organization rests on the Armenian conflicts
with Turkey and Azerbaijan. If these problems are solved, the Armenian
lobby will lose political significance," Ogan said.