EDITORIAL: HOPEFUL SIGNS
Arab News
;section=0& ;article=126046&d=3&m=9&y=2009
Sept 3 2009
Saudi Arabia
THE surprise announcement Monday night that Turkey and Armenia have
agreed to open diplomatic relations and reopen a border between them
that has been closed since 1927, except for a brief period ending
in 1993, is to be welcomed, even though the finalization of the two
protocols will be fraught with difficulties.
However, if Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan can see this
agreement through, it will transform both Turkey’s international
standing and bring stability to the southern Caucasus. But the "if"
is a big one. The protocols require parliamentary ratification and
are opposed by nationalists in both Turkey and Armenia. Economically
Armenia has more to gain. Since independence was restored in 1991, it
has struggled in the face of Russian interference, financial ineptitude
and corruption. With a falling birth rate, its 3,250,000 inhabitants
have survived in no small measure on investment and remittances from
the eight million Armenians who live outside the country.
Armenia’s plight was worsened following the successful uprising
of majority ethnic Armenians in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave of
Azerbaijan. Turkey re-closed the border and landlocked Armenia
struggled, with a major part of its trade having to pass expensively
through its neighbor Georgia. Until Monday’s agreements Ankara had
insisted on the return of the enclave to Azeri rule before negotiations
could be concluded. Since Turkey expects to benefit substantially from
the planned Nabucco pipeline that will pass across it taking Azeri gas
to Europe, it seems unthinkable that the protocols with Armenia have
been made in isolation. Diplomatic sources indicated Wednesday night
that the Minsk Group established in 1992, and co-chaired by Russia, the
United States and France might be on the verge of a settlement to the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, possibly involving some level of autonomy for
the enclave in return for Armenian recognition of Azeri sovereignty.
It would, however, be surprising if the Kremlin is backing a deal
running counter to its own interests. Facilitating the Nabucco
project that will give Europe an alternative to Russian gas, Gazprom
is currently offering to pipe Azeri gas to Baku’s new European
customers via its own pipeline network. It may be, however, that
Russia is tempted by the longer view that a stable and prosperous
southern Caucasus will assist it as it grapples with growing Muslim
unrest in the north.
Whatever the outcome, providing its nationalist right-wing politicians
do not make an ugly spectacle of themselves, Erdogan’s government is
likely to emerge with considerable credit for grasping such a difficult
political nettle as Armenia. The UN, the EU, the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and the United States all
want to see a normalization in Turco-Armenian relations. Starting
with President Abdullah Gul’s visit last year to Yerevan to watch
Turkey play Armenia in a World Cup qualifier, it is Ankara that has
been making the running — and taking the political risks. If only
past Turkish governments had demonstrated equal wisdom over the vexed
issue of Northern Cyprus. But maybe the Armenian talks now presage
new movement on Cyprus as well.
Japan’s new rulers
THE election upset in Japan is a potentially positive development,
said Los Angeles Times in an editorial on Tuesday. Excerpts:
How do you say, "throw the bums out" in Japanese? That’s what Japanese
voters did on Sunday, booting the Liberal Democratic Party that has
ruled almost continuously for more than half a century and leaves
now with the world’s second-largest economy in sorry shape. The newly
elected Democratic Party of Japan is an eclectic mix of leftists and
defectors from the ruling party. Its ability to run the country is
untested, and its leaders have yet to explain how to pay for their
populist campaign promises.
Nevertheless, the election upset is a potentially positive
development. A one-party state is bound to grow stale; competition
is as important in politics as it is in business.
The outgoing Liberal Democratic Party helped turn Japan from a
post-World War II wreck into a global powerhouse. In league with
industry and a powerful government bureaucracy, the ruling party
oversaw decades of growth that offered its citizens lifelong jobs
with housing and health care.
But that system has been unraveling since the Japanese economy
collapsed in the 1990s. Now, government scandals, recession,
unemployment and an aging population’s deep anxiety about the future
have prompted voters who normally value stability to reject the known
and embrace the promise of change.
Although the Democratic Party has never held power, key members come
from the political elite, starting with leader Yukio Hatoyama, who
is expected to be named prime minister. His grandfather is a founder
of the just-defeated Liberal Democratic Party, and Hatoyama himself
was a legislator.
Hatoyama has said that Japan must strengthen its economic and security
ties with East Asia. Americans should not be alarmed. China is Japan’s
largest trading partner, and the countries share a neighborhood. Such
integration can help Japan’s economic recovery without harming its
ties to the US. A healthy Japanese economy is in everyone’s interest.