TURKEY, ARMENIA EDGE TOWARDS PEACE DEAL
By Ivan Watson

CNN.com
September 1, 2009 Tuesday 12:13 PM EST

Hours after Turkey and Armenia announced a tentative, Swiss-mediated
peace deal, opposition politicians in Turkey were blasting the
proposal.

The plan would normalize relations and open the common border between
the two neighbors.

Political analysts warn that there are still immense hurdles left,
before Armenians and Turks can overcome nearly a century of bad
blood and re-open a border that has been sealed shut for more then
fifteen years.

In a joint press statement released late Monday night, Switzerland,
Armenia and Turkey announced they had agreed to start six weeks
of "internal political consultations" on two protocols, aimed at
establishing diplomatic and bilateral relations.

"The protocol can be signed in six weeks, ratified by the parliament
completing the process there and come into force," Turkish Foreign
Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said, in an interview to Turkey’s NTV news
station. "However it is not known how long the approval process
would be."

At least one observer noted the tenuous nature of the deal.

"I don’t see it as a breakthrough, because as long as everything is
tied to parliamentary approval … you can always go back to square
one," said Nigar Goksel, an Istanbul-based analyst with the European
Stability Initiative, who has closely followed recent diplomacy
between Yerevan and Ankara.

The border between Turkey and Armenia has been shut since 1993,
after Turkey objected to Armenia’s war with Turkish-ally Azerbaijan
over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabagh. Neither country has
embassies in each other’s capitals.

"The United States warmly welcomes the joint statement made today by
Turkey and Armenia, with Swiss participation, outlining further steps
in the normalization of their bilateral relations," the U.S. State
Department said in a statement released Monday.

"It has long been and remains the position of the United States that
normalization should take place without preconditions and within
a reasonable timeframe. We urge Armenia and Turkey to proceed
expeditiously, according to the agreed framework as described in
today’s statement.

"We remain ready to work closely with both governments in support
of normalization, a historic process that will contribute to peace,
security and stability throughout the region."

Turkish-Armenian relations are often overshadowed by dispute over
the massacre of ethnic Armenians in the final days of the Ottoman
Empire, more then 90 years ago. Armenians accuse Ottoman Turks of
committing genocide, killing more then a million Armenians starting
in 1915. Modern-day Turkey vehemently rejects these allegations.

The proposed protocol for normalizing relations calls for creating a
committee of international experts, to research archives and "restore
mutual confidence between the two nations." But there is no mention
of the disputed territory of Karabagh, which Armenian troops have
controlled since the 1993 Armenian-Azerbaijan war.

"In this way Turkey is taking a step back," said Onur Oymen, a lawmaker
in Turkey’s opposition CHP party. He said if the protocols were put
to a vote before the Turkish parliament, "we won’t support them. This
would damage Turkey’s relations with Azerbaijan."

Many observers say the current diplomatic rapprochement between
Turkey and Armenia was made possible by a dramatic round of "football
diplomacy." In September 2008, Turkish president Abdullah Gul accepted
an invitation to attend a soccer match with Armenia’s newly-elected
president in the Armenian capital.

But in interviews, Armenian President Serge Sarkisian has said he wants
Turkey to make progress towards re-opening the border, before agreeing
to attend a follow-up round of football diplomacy, at a soccer match
scheduled to take place in the Turkish city of Bursa on October 14.