TURKEY, ARMENIA MOVE TO ESTABLISH TIES
by Huma Yusuf

Christian Science Monitor
September 1, 2009, Tuesday

A daily summary of global reports on security issues.

Turkey and Armenia announced in a joint statement Monday the launch
of talks aimed at establishing diplomatic ties. The announcement
is the first concrete step toward normalizing relations since the
two countries announced that they would resume ties in April this
year. The negotiations, which are being mediated by Switzerland,
mark a thaw in relations between the neighbors after a century of
animosity. Turkey and Armenia have never had diplomatic ties; in 1993,
Turkey closed the border with Armenia in support of Azerbaijan, which
was fighting Armenia over the enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh at the time.

Analysts say Turkey’s improved relations with Armenia will help
consolidate its position as a regional power. According to Public
Radio of Armenia, Turkey and Armenia will engage in consultations
on two protocols – promoting diplomatic relations and developing
bilateral ties. The talks are expected to last six weeks, after
which both countries will submit the protocols to their respective
parliaments to be ratified. The border between the two countries is
expected to open within two months, reports Reuters. The New York
Times reports that the talks will not touch on arguably the most
divisive issue between the two countries: the killing of more than 1
million Armenians under Turkish Ottoman rule between 1915 and 1918,
which the present-day Turkish government does not recognize as
genocide. Recently, Armenian President Serge Sarkisian indicated
that Turkey’s recognition of genocide is not a precondition for
establishing relations. The Swiss-mediated talks began last year,
keeping a low profile to avoid exciting nationalist antagonism in
both countries. Armenia’s insistence that border and trade relations
be normalized before any discussion of genocide began helped push
the most contentious issue to the back burner. Although the debate
about the World War I-era killings will not be touched upon, the talks
could still face obstacles, reports the Associated Press. In Turkey,
nationalist sentiment and suspicion about Armenian intentions is
particularly high. Also, despite an agreement that the process should
proceed without preconditions, Turkey’s prime minister has linked it
to a resolution of the dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh, an Azeri region
that was occupied by Armenian troops. Trend News Agency, a Baku-based
news organization serving the Caucasus and Caspian region, reports that
the Armenian opposition party, the Armenian Revolutionary Federation,
will likely pressure the government to remain restrained in its
dealings with Ankara. Despite these hurdles, analysts in Armenia are
optimistic that the talks will lead to improved bilateral relations,
reports A1 Plus, a Yerevan-based news channel. An analysis in The
Economist suggests that improved relations with Armenia are part
of Turkey’s foreign policy strategy under Foreign Minister Ahmet
Davutoglu. [Mr. Davutoglu’s] approach rests on two pillars. One is
to have "zero problems" with the neighbours, many of them troubled or
troublesome. The other is "strategic depth". This calls for a Turkish
zone of political, economic and cultural influence, primarily among
neighbours (many of them former Ottoman dominions) in the Balkans, the
south Caucasus and the Middle East. On the issue of Turkish-Armenian
relations, The Economist also suggests that Turkey’s relations with
the United States may have instilled a willingness to negotiate. Mr
Davutoglu insists that Turkey wants peace with Armenia. But one
Western diplomat says that "rapprochement with Armenia is on its
last legs." This has raised the spectre of a row with Turkey’s most
powerful ally, America. Armenian-Americans want Mr Obama to honour
his election pledge to insist that the massacre by Ottoman forces of
more than a million of their ancestors in 1915 was genocide.