TURKEY RECONCILIATION DEAL CAUSE FOR CONTROVERSY IN ARMENIA, AZERBAIJAN
By Haroutiun Khachatrian and Shahin Abbasov

Eurasia Insight
ticles/eav090109.shtml
9/01/09

After years of mud-slinging, Turkey and Armenia appear ready to restore
diplomatic ties, but the initial reaction within Armenia suggests
that the process could meet with strong political opposition. Watching
closely from the sidelines, Turkish ally Azerbaijan, meanwhile, states
that it expects Turkey to keep its word — no diplomatic ties with
Armenia until territories bordering the disputed region of Nagorno
Karabakh are returned to Azerbaijani control.

Late on August 31, the foreign ministries of Armenia, Turkey and
mediator Switzerland announced plans for two protocols for the
normalization of bilateral relations between Armenia and Turkey
"within a reasonable timeframe." The draft protocols are expected
to undergo internal political consultations during a six-week period
and then be signed and "submitted to the respective Parliaments for
. . . ratification." The opening of the Armenian-Turkish border,
closed since 1993, is expected to take place two months after the
protocols enter into force.

In September 1 comments to Armenian diplomats, Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan hailed the protocols, underlining that they do not
contain any conditions which Turkey set previously for restoring ties
with Armenia — namely, the withdrawal of forces from territories
bordering Nagorno Karabakh.

The United States and France have expressed their support for the
agreement. No official reaction from Russia is yet available.

In a September 1 interview with the Turkish television station NTV,
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu was similarly upbeat. "We
know that normalization will be a prolonged process, but every such
process starts with an initial step, which, in this case, is the
recognition of borders," said Davutoglu.

Davutoglu termed such recognition "the most important aspect of good
relations between two neighbors."

None of Armenia’s political parties has so far published its official
position on the Turkish-Armenian protocols, but Davutoglu’s emphasis on
border recognition alone has proven cause for worry among opposition
parties. Many fear that such recognition would reconfirm the loss of
Armenian territory to Turkey under a 1921 agreement between Ankara
and the Soviet Union.

Other worries also persist. Giro Manoyan, international secretary for
the nationalist Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Dashnaktsutiun),
worries that the protocols do not exclude the possibility that Turkey
will attempt to link the restoration of ties with Armenia to the
Karabakh settlement process.

Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu commented that "[t]he protocol
on normalization of relations doesn’t mean that we renounce our
principles on [a] Karabakh conflict resolution," expressing hope
that international attention would "focus on the Karabakh problem
henceforth."

Vladimir Karapetian, the foreign affairs advisor for former President
Levon Ter Petrosian’s Armenian National Congress bloc, shares Manoyan’s
unease. The requirement that the protocols be ratified after their
signature means that Turkey’s parliament could delay the normalization
process indefinitely by linking the protocols’ ratification to a
settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, he argues.

Armenian legislation does not require ratification of documents for
establishing diplomatic relations.

Both opposition representatives also see potential pitfalls in the
requirement to create "a sub-commission on the historical dimension."

"If Turkey is interested in revealing the historical truth, it would
be better to create a favorable atmosphere for discussing the genocide
problem in its own country," objected Manoyan. "It can also discuss
this problem with specialists from other countries. But Armenia has
nothing to do in it."

In an interview with the BBC published on August 31, Sargsyan said that
the genocide problem is one where "compromises are impossible." In
his September 1 speech to Armenian diplomats, he said only that
"historical problems" will be discussed within the inter-governmental
sub-commission, rather than a commission of historians, as earlier
proposed by Turkey.

Meanwhile, other "historical problems" still loom ahead. Turkey closed
its border with Armenia to support Azerbaijan during its 1988-1994
conflict with Armenia and ethnic Armenian separatist forces over the
breakaway region of Nagorno Karabakh.

News of the protocols ranked as Azerbaijan’s top news item on September
1, and the official reaction came swiftly.

Terming a country’s decision to build ties with a neighbor its
"sovereign right," Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Elkhan
Polukhov told EurasiaNet that the protocol issue "directly touches on
Azerbaijan’s national interests and the opening of the Turkish-Armenian
border without a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is
against these interests."

Azerbaijani foreign ministry officials are in "constant contact" with
their Turkish colleagues about the protocol and the Nagorno-Karabakh
discussions, Polukhov continued. Baku, he said, bases its reaction
to the reconciliation news on Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan’s May 14 statement to the Azerbaijani parliament "that the
border between Turkey and Armenia will be open only after the full
liberation of Azerbaijani occupied territories."

Elhan Shahinoglu, head of the Baku-based Atlas research center,
believes that Ankara has already agreed with Baku on the issue of
its deal with Armenia.

Two days before the protocols’ publication, on August 29, Turkish
Deputy Foreign Minister Firidun Shirinlioglu and special envoy,
Ambassador Unal Chevikoz, traveled to Baku and met with Azerbaijani
President Ilham Aliyev.

"Therefore, it is likely that Baku agreed. Otherwise, Turkey would not
risk deteriorating relations with Azerbaijan," Shahingolu said. Aside
from close ethnic and cultural ties, the two countries share interests
in strategic energy projects.

If Baku agreed with Turkey’s position, he opined, that could signal
that the Aliyev administration hopes for a breakthrough in the
Nagorno-Karabakh talks by the end of the year.

One senior parliamentarian from Azerbaijan’s ruling Yeni Azerbaijan
Party shares that appraisal.

Aydin Mirzazade, deputy chairman of parliamentary committee for
defense and security, termed the Turkey-Armenia rapprochement talks
and discussions between Aliyev and Armenian President Sargsyan about
Nagorno Karabakh "strongly interconnected," Day.az reported.

Vafa Guluzade, who acted as Azerbaijan’s envoy to the Nagorno-Karabakh
talks under the late President Heydar Aliyev, however, cautions that
"rapprochement without the Karabakh conflict’s resolution will harm
relations between Ankara and Baku."

On one point, however, all three countries — Armenia, Turkey and
Azerbaijan — can easily agree. Said analyst Shahinoglu: "It is
difficult to say how the situation will develop, even in the short-
term."

Editor’s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is an editor and freelance
writer based in Yerevan. Shahin Abbasov is a freelance correspondent
based in Baku. He is also a board member of the Open Society
Institute-Azerbaijan.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress