The Economist: how long the process between Armenia and Turkey can
last is anybody’s guess
05.09.2009 18:06 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ This week Armenia and Turkey announced plans for six
weeks of `internal political consultations’ before establishing
diplomatic ties and reopening their border. Coming after several
months of Swiss mediation and arm-twisting by America, the declaration
makes reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia a real prospect – but
not a foregone conclusion, The Economist writes.

Hopes of a new friendship blossomed in September 2008 when Turkey’s
president, Abdullah Gul, became the first modern Turkish leader to
visit Armenia, for a football World Cup qualifier. A full deal seemed
imminent in April when the two countries initialed a preliminary
agreement, including a plan to reopen the border¦ Turkey had
earlier insisted that it would not reopen the border until Armenia and
Azerbaijan had made peace. But in April it seemed to change tack. The
main reason was to stop America’s Congress adopting a resolution to
label the mass slaughter of the Ottoman Armenians in 1915 as
genocide. It worked: Barack Obama did not use the term in his annual
April 24th statement, the article says.

Yet days later the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
reverted to previous policy by insisting that peace with Armenia would
come only if the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was solved. The switch back
reflected nationalist reaction at home as well as Azerbaijan’s threat
to turn towards Russia. Armenia’s president, Serzh Sargsyan,
retaliated by saying he would not attend a return football match in
Turkey on October 14th unless the border was on the verge of being
reopened, it says.

This week’s announcement is calculated to ensure that Mr Sargsyan
comes to the match, maintaining the façade of
reconciliation. By careful coincidence the time for internal political
consultations ends just before the match. Links of various sorts
between the two countries are growing fast and Armenian tourists h
ty to a deal from opposition parties in both countries is strong.

Armenia’s hardline nationalists are furious that the government has
agreed both to the present border and to a joint historical commission
that might yet call the genocide into doubt. They also accuse Mr
Sargsyan of selling out Karabakh. Even if the April 22nd deal is
accepted, another hurdle has been raised: both countries’ parliaments
must agree. To stifle domestic anger (and perhaps embarrass the Turks)
Armenia also chose to publish the full text of the agreements in
April. They do not mention Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkey’s response has been contradictory. Its foreign minister, Ahmet
Davutoglu, insists that he hopes that the border will be reopened by
the end of the year. But he also says that peace with Armenia is
sustainable only if it makes peace with Azerbaijan. Long-running talks
between Armenia and Azerbaijan seem to be going nowhere. Mr
Davutoglu’s most accurate assertion may be that Turkey and Armenia are
at the start of a `long process.’ How long is anybody’s guess, the
article says.