The Economist
Sept 5 2009
U.S. Edition

Football diplomacy: Turkish-Armenian relations

It may take a long time to restore relations between two old enemies

AFTER decades of fierce animosity, are Turkey and Armenia getting
closer to peace? This week the two countries announced plans for six
weeks of "internal political consultations" before establishing
diplomatic ties and reopening their border. Coming after several
months of Swiss mediation and arm-twisting by America, the declaration
makes reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia a real prospect’but
not a foregone conclusion.

Hopes of a new friendship blossomed in September 2008 when Turkey’s
president, Abdullah Gul, became the first modern Turkish leader to
visit Armenia, for a football World Cup qualifier (which Armenia
lost). A full deal seemed imminent in April when the two countries
initialled a preliminary agreement, including a plan to reopen the
border. This was sealed by the Turks in 1993 in solidarity with their
Azeri cousins during Azerbaijan’s short, sharp war with Armenia over
Nagorno-Karabakh, a mainly Armenian enclave of Azerbaijan (which
Armenia won).

Turkey had earlier insisted that it would not reopen the border until
Armenia and Azerbaijan had made peace. But in April it seemed to
change tack. The main reason was to stop America’s Congress adopting a
resolution to label the mass slaughter of the Ottoman Armenians in
1915 as genocide. It worked: Barack Obama did not use the term in his
annual April 24th statement on the anniversary of the killings.

Yet days later the Turkish prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
reverted to previous policy by insisting that peace with Armenia would
come only if the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was solved. The switch back
reflected nationalist reaction at home as well as Azerbaijan’s threat
to turn towards Russia. Armenia’s president, Serzh Sargsyan,
retaliated by saying he would not attend a return football match in
Turkey on October 14th unless the border was on the verge of being
reopened.

This week’s announcement is calculated to ensure that Mr Sargsyan
comes to the match, maintaining the façade of reconciliation. By
careful coincidence the time for internal political consultations ends
just before the match. Links of various sorts between the two
countries are growing fast and Armenian tourists have been flocking to
the Turkish coast. Yet hostility to a deal from opposition parties in
both countries is strong.

Armenia’s hardline nationalists are furious that the government has
agreed both to the present border and to a joint historical commission
that might yet call the genocide into doubt. They also accuse Mr
Sargsyan of selling out Karabakh. Even if the April 22nd deal is
accepted, another hurdle has been raised: both countries’ parliaments
must agree. To stifle domestic anger (and perhaps embarrass the Turks)
Armenia also chose to publish the full text of the agreements in
April. They do not mention Nagorno-Karabakh.

Turkey’s response has been contradictory. Its foreign minister, Ahmet
Davutoglu, insists that he hopes that the border will be reopened by
the end of the year. But he also says that peace with Armenia is
sustainable only if it makes peace with Azerbaijan. Long-running talks
between Armenia and Azerbaijan seem to be going nowhere. Mr
Davutoglu’s most accurate assertion may be that Turkey and Armenia are
at the start of a "long process." How long is anybody’s guess.