TURKEY-ARMENIA JOINT DECLARATION SETS NEW COURSE
Eric Palomaa

World Politics Review
Sept 7 2009

In a major diplomatic breakthrough, Turkey and Armenia declared their
intent to restore relations and open their sealed border in a joint
statement issued last week. Under Swiss auspices, the two countries
outlined their collective plan to sign into action two protocols,
one restoring diplomatic relations and the other to establish
bilateral ties within six weeks. According to the joint statement,
the protocols will enter into force only after they have been ratified
by both countries’ parliaments.

The joint declaration marks the culmination of rapprochement
efforts that began with Turkish President Abdullah Gul’s "football
diplomacy" visit to Yerevan in September 2008. Those efforts were
soon stalled by the chronic political contentions surrounding historic
Ottoman-Armenian genocide claims and the status of Nagorno-Karabakh,
an Armenian-supported breakaway province of Azerbaijan. Turkey’s
demonstrated persistence on engaging Armenia reveals its commitment to
enhancing its image as a regional statesman, as well as its abiding
strategic security concerns and economic interests in resolving the
conflicts of the Caucasus.

Turkey closed its border with Armenia in 1993 to protest Armenia’s
support of the independence claims of Azerbaijan’s ethnically
Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. That gesture of solidarity and
Turkey’s subsequent insistence that any rapprochement with Armenia be
conditioned on a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict have been
Baku’s biggest asset in the Karabakh negotiations, giving the joint
declaration to reopen the border profound symbolic significance. Ankara
has faced mounting political pressures from Azerbaijan throughout the
latest rapproachement efforts with Armenia. Baku insisted that any
bilateral agreements or border opening without preconditions would
preclude a favorable resolution to the Karabakh conflict. Ankara’s
decision to move forward with the diplomatic protocols while the
Karabakh issue remains largely unresolved has been a rallying point for
Turkish opposition party leaders and a source of skepticism in Baku.

Both major Turkish opposition parties, the National Movement Party
(MHP) and the Republican People’s Party (CHP), have condemned
the bilateral protocols as counterproductive, one-sided and overly
concessionary. CHP Vice President Onur Oymen summed up the prevailing
argument when he said that Armenia has not sufficiently changed its
policy nor implemented the necessary preconditions to allow for such
a sweeping initiative.

"Does Armenia officially confirm that it will withdraw from
Nagorno-Karabakh?" he asked Tuesday, referring to Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan’s April promise to the Azerbaijani parliament that the
Turkey-Armenia border would not be opened until the Karabakh conflict
was resolved. He added, "Now you even declare a timetable for opening
the border. How can you convince the Azerbaijanis?"

Turkey tried to assuage Azerbaijani concerns over the weekend by
sending two of its top diplomats to Baku to inform them about the
process. Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu reiterated Tuesday
in a public interview that Ankara would safeguard Baku’s interests
while setting up ties with Armenia.

"Turkey would never do something to the disadvantage of its
Azerbaijani brothers," Davutoglu said. When asked whether Turkey has
changed its policy towards Nagorno-Karabakh and will open the border
unconditionally, Davutoglu emphasized that Turkey was envisaging
"parallel tracks," and that it was not possible to "sustain the
normalization process without a comprehensive reconciliation in
the region."

Though Davutoglu has framed the Armenian-Turkish statement in terms of
Turkey’s comprehensive "zero problems with neighbors" foreign policy,
Ankara’s new resolve in normalizing bilateral relations with Armenia
at the expense of Azerbaijani wishes makes a strong statement about
the direction of Turkey’s larger policy objectives. The rapprochement
with Armenia comes on the heels of the recent resurgence of competing
Russian influence in the Caucasus and Caspian, and also coincides with
efforts to resolve a long-running domestic feud with Kurdish citizens,
a major issue in Turkey’s EU ascension process.

It remains to be seen whether the groundbreaking protocols will
endure parliamentary ratification over the next six weeks, or if
the Armenian-Turkish border will be opened as planned when Armenian
President Serzh Sargsyan arrives in Turkey to watch the next World
Cup qualifying match Oct. 14. What is certain is that the debate in
Turkey over the joint declaration has already been opened.

Eric Palomaa is currently a Master’s candidate at the University of
Chicago’s Center for Middle Eastern Studies and works as a regional
analyst for the Joint Threat Anticipation Center through Argonne
National Lab and the University of Chicago. He was an International
Security Program intern at the Center for Strategic and International
Studies, where he worked on the U.S.-Turkey Strategic Initiative. He
has also studied in Ankara, Turkey, at the Middle East Technical
University and in Yerevan, Armenia, through the Critical Language
Institute.

Photo: "Football Diplomacy" meeting between Turkish President Abdullah
Gul and Armenian President Serge Sarkisian in Yerevan, Sept. 6, 2008
(Turkish government photo).

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress