ERA OF THE BUSH FAMILY IS OVER IN STATE DEPARTMENT

PanARMENIAN.Net
08.09.2009 GMT+04:00

Robert Bradtke will try if not to resolve the conflict, which is
hardly possible in the foreseeable future, at least to minimize the
threat of a military regulation.

The day before, the United States finally decided on the appointment
of a new OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
regulation. It was career diplomat, Ambassador Robert Bradtke. Until
July 2009 Robert Bradtke, diplomat with 35 years of experience
as U.S. foreign service officer, served as U.S. Ambassador to
Croatia. Prior to that, from 2001 to 2004 Bradtke worked as Deputy
Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs,
with responsibility for NATO and the OSCE.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Appointment of a diplomat of such a rank shows how
seriously the United States has begun to take the conflicts in the
South Caucasus. Moreover, America is concerned about the level of its
representation, which was not so high under the former co-chairs. We
can say that with the appointment of Tina Kaidanow instead of Daniel
Fried and Robert Bradtke instead of Mathew Bryza, era of the Bush
family came to an end in the State Department. Not randomly do both
of the diplomats know perfectly well the situation in the territory
of the CIS and Europe. We hardly expect the new mediator to speak of
a Â"breakthroughÂ", a Â"windowÂ" or similar Â"opportunitiesÂ", which
were the common words of Bryza. The American diplomat will try if not
to resolve the conflict, which is hardly possible in the foreseeable
future, at least to minimize the threat of a military regulation.

Russia too has almost decided on a new co-chair. Most likely it
will be Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin, specialist on
the region. According to Russian experts, the appointment of such
a political Â"heavyweightÂ" as Karasin will undoubtedly raise the
settlement of the Karabakh conflict to a new quality level, will help
to avoid hasty decisions and will prevent the rebirth of hostilit
lated to the strengthening of the Armenian-Turkish relations. Experts
also note that neither of the new mediators will support any of
the parties: Bradtke is in no relationship with oil companies or at
least nothing is known about these relationships. Thus, he is a kind
of exception in this respect, as the last two American diplomats,
members of the OSCE Minsk Group Steven Mann and Mathew Bryza supported
the position of Baku, being related to energy projects of the former
U.S. Vice-President Dick Cheney and President George W. Bush. The new
administration is on the right path, placing U.S. national interests
at the center. These interests are not exhausted on hydrocarbons and
perhaps that is why the reaction of the Azerbaijani mass media on the
appointment of Bradtke and Tina Kaidanow was almost null. The thing
is that the stakes on oil failed.

Things are both difficult and easy with Russia. Karasin will not take
any steps against an ally like Armenia. Despite western efforts to
divert Armenia from Russia, we are still Russia’s ally. The stir-up
in the Armenian-Turkish relations in this case served as a good
reason to treat the OSCE Minsk Group more seriously, as it is not
yet clear which of the powers is more interested in the opening
of the Armenian-Turkish border: the United States or Russia. In
words both sides welcome the opening, but in fact stances of the
two sides diverge. The divergence can be seen even with a naked eye:
the border in any case will be protected by Russian frontier guards,
which actually suggests even tougher control over the perimeter.

The United States has a concern too: Turkey’s membership in NATO and
the desire to push her into the EU. Alternatively, we must admit that
the administration of Barack Obama is much softer in this respect
than the previous one. In fact, it turns out that in case of opening
the border America’s reward is going to be the provision of transit
for the delivery of its forces to Afghanistan. The Nagorno-Karabakh
problem in this case takes a back seat and it now requires serious
and sober-minded diplomats, whose words will express exactly what
they mean to say, without further explanations or references to poor
translation. The change of mediators means almost nothing to the NKR:
status quo remains, and new co-chairs may simply review the Madrid
principles or shelve them until the Karabakh conflict is settled. The
State Department has apparently returned to its old principle: not
to participate in two or more conflicts simultaneously. Iraq and Af
are more than enough; there will be no new war in the Caucasus for
the time being.

As for the French Co-Chair Bernard Fassier, he will probably remain
for some more time in the OSCE Minsk Group. After all, there must be
someone to introduce the new diplomats into the course of affairs at
the molecular level. However, this is no longer of any importance. At
the end of the month there will begin visits of the mediators to the
‘site’, ‘acquaintance’ with the situation, and new proposals. In short,
as always in this long-drawn-out conflict there lacks the principal
privy – the people of Nagorno Karabakh.