AZERBAIJAN NERVOUSLY WATCHING TURKISH-ARMENIAN RAPPROCHEMENT
By: Fariz Ismailzade

Jamestown Foundation
Sept 11 2009

The Turkish-Armenian agreement on September 1 to start political
consultations aimed at establishing diplomatic relations between the
two countries has once again raised concerns in Baku. It is only
four months since the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
visited Baku and assured Azerbaijani politicians and the public that
the closed border between Turkey and Armenia will remain unchanged
until the occupied territories of Azerbaijan are liberated. Yet,
the recent announcement by Armenian and Turkish diplomats once again
shocked political circles in Azerbaijan.

The ruling party -Yeni Azerbaijan Party- immediately announced
on September 2 that "the party considers the normalization of
Turkish-Armenian relations unacceptable until Karabakh is liberated"
(, September 2). Mubariz Gurbanly, the deputy executive
secretary of the party added, "Turkey and Azerbaijan are strategic
allies. Our relations are based on the principles of ‘one nation-two
states.’ Much unites our countries. These recent talks between Armenia
and Turkey negatively influence public opinion in Azerbaijan." Ali
Ahmadov, a member of parliament and one of the most influential MP’s in
the ruling party, drew attention to the speech made in the Azerbaijani
parliament by Erdogan: "We respect that statement in which Erdogan
said that the border will not re-open prior the resolution of the
Karabakh conflict" (Trend News, September 5).

The Azeri foreign ministry also issued a statement, saying that
the establishment of relations with other countries is a sovereign
right of every nation, yet considering the fact that the re-opening
of the Turkish-Armenian border touches on the national interests of
Azerbaijan, this matter cannot be resolved without the resolution of
the Karabakh conflict. Elkhan Polukhov, a spokesman for the foreign
ministry, recalled that the borders were closed in response to the
Armenian occupation of Azerbaijani territory. "Thus, they can open
only after the occupation has ended" (, September 1).

Although Turkish politicians rushed to reassure their Azerbaijani
colleagues that Turkey will not act against the national interests of
Azerbaijan, tension over the issue remains high in Baku. The Azeri
Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov held a telephone call with his
Turkish counterpart Ahmet Davutoglu to clarify Baku’s stance, and
received further assurances from the Turkish side. On September 8,
while on a visit to Georgia, Davutoglu stated that "much time remains
until the borders will open" (APA News). The Turkish President Abdullah
Gul, also stated that "Turkey will not take steps which will disappoint
Azerbaijan" (Trend, September 8).

The majority in Azerbaijan link the re-opening of the
Turkish-Armenian border to the resolution of the Karabakh
conflict. Azerbaijani political circles are not against the
normalization of Turkish-Armenians relations per se, yet they would
like to see this process tied to the withdrawal of Armenian military
forces from the occupied Azerbaijani lands. The recent peace talks
between the Azerbaijani and Armenian presidents failed to produce any
concrete breakthrough. Observers in Baku noted Yerevan’s stubbornness
and refusal to free Azerbaijani lands in exchange for the gradual
normalization of Azerbaijani-Armenian political, economic and trade
relations. Thus, the opening of the Turkish-Armenian border, they
believe, might further embolden Armenia and make it less likely to
compromise on the Karabakh issue.

There are those, however, who believe that the re-opening of the
Turkish-Armenian border will eventually prove positive for Azerbaijan
and for the whole region. "Normalization of Turkish-Armenian relations
will diminish Russian influence over Armenia, and will be beneficial
for Azerbaijan," according to the Azeri political scientist Ilgar
Mammadov (, September 2).

The international community welcomed the Turkish-Armenian
rapprochement, as a positive step towards securing sustainable peace
and prosperity in the South Caucasus. Indeed, the cold war between
Turkey and Armenia has not produced any tangible positive results
over the past decade. Armenia still refuses to liberate the occupied
Azerbaijani lands and has fallen more and more into military and
economic dependence on Russia. It is hoped that the normalization of
Turkish-Armenian relations will break the status quo and provide more
opportunities for peace in the region.

Yet, it remains to be seen how Azerbaijan will react to the Turkish
decision. If Baku’s stance is not taken into consideration, the
consequences for Ankara might be unpredictable. Without winning a new
friend, Turkey might lose an old one. Thus, the strategic presence
of Turkey in the region, as well as the prospects for such regional
projects as the Nabucco gas pipeline might be significantly weakened.