GEORGIA’S FATE AND SECRET AGREEMENT ON KARABAKH
Stanislav Tarasov
WPS Agency
Rossiyskie vesti
DEFENSE and SECURITY
September 14, 2009 Monday
Russia
ARE RF AND TURKEY COVERTLY COORDINATING THEIR POLICIES IN THE
TRANS-CAUCASUS?; RF and Turkey may tacitly work out joint strategies
in Trans-Caucasus issues
Boats of the Georgian coast guard detained the Turkish tanker
Buket. There were a number of similar incidents between Georgia and
Abkhazia. However, this time Georgia behaved confrontationally: the
court resolved, besides the penalty put in such cases, to sentence
the Turkish captain to 24 years of imprisonment.
Ankara reacted quickly. The Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs voiced
vigorous protests against the verdict against the captain. Moreover,
in a context of the situation it is impossible to exclude that Ankara
may hint at the possibility of recognizing Abkhaz independence. The
official RF foreign ministry representative announced that "instances
of capture by Georgia of ships from third countries at the coast of
Abkhazia are fraught with an aggravation in the military-political
situation in the region". Thereupon the Abkhaz president Sergey Bagapsh
issued an order to the navy of republic to destroy the Georgian
ships violating sea border of the republic. And, more importantly,
the decision has been made that protection of ships bound for Abkhaz
ports will be provided by the Russian navy.
The events were not limited by a single Georgian-Abkhaz incident. After
the Turkish-Armenian "protocols" were initially signed, which made
a lot of noise throughout the world, providing normalization in
relations between the two countries, the president of Armenia Serzh
Sargsyan decided to address the problems of Armenians in Dzhavakha
at a meeting of representatives from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs
central office and the country’s diplomatic corps:
"Our policy concerning Dzhavakha should start with the principle of
"Integration without merging". I think that the steps directed to
a recognition of the Armenian language in Georgia, maintenance of
registration of the Armenian Apostolic church, protection of Armenian
monuments, will promote a strengthening of the Armenian-Georgian
friendship".
Some analysts in Georgia consider this statement by the Armenian
leader as "an element in some unofficial games". Georgian expert Mamuka
Areshidze said "the former president of Armenia Robert Kocharyan, on
the contrary, urged Armenians living in Georgia to study the Georgian
language". There was a shootout on the Armenia border a few days ago in
which three Georgian servicemen were killed. The Minister for Foreign
Affairs of Georgia Grigol Vashadze expressed himself in an original
way with regard to the statement by Serzh Sargsyan on the status of
the Armenian language in Georgia during a working visit of Yerevan:
"We in Georgia treat all thoughts expressed by Armenia with deep
attention and respect. The president of Armenia did not say it is
necessary to declare the Armenian language regional, he said that it
would be useful to discuss this idea".
There is a great deal of understanding in Tbilisi and Yerevan that the
so-called "language" problem in Dzhavakha is capable, under certain
conditions, of becoming a prelude to an appreciable straining of
relations between two neighbor countries of the Trans-Caucasus, if not
to a conflict. At any rate, the statement by the Armenian president
is capable of agitating both the Georgian Armenians, and ethnic
Azerbaijanis compactly living on territory of Georgia. The attempts by
Tbilisi to integrate the country’s ethnic minorities other after the
Caucasian crisis have largely failed. Therefore the main issue is now
why the president of Armenia took the first probing step concerning
Georgia now. Whether is it a structural link of a wide context of the
general actions by Turkey and Russia in different directions, including
a reaction to the capture of ships by the Georgian coast guard.
It is interesting to see the reaction by high-ranking Azerbaijani
officials to some publications in the Russian and Turkish media. The
head of the Azerbaijan president’s administration department of
international contacts Novruz Mamedov announced the other day that
he was shocked "by the appearance of a report in the Turkish Bugun
newspaper, according to which the president of Azerbaijan, "cutting
short a visit of Georgia, returned to the country, and called an
emergency meeting" immediately after the initial signing of the
"protocols" containing provisions to normalize the relations between
Armenia and Turkey. Novruz Mamedov refuted the claim that "an emergency
meeting with participation of responsible heads of administration,
representatives by the Azerbaijan Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
management of the Ministry of national security of the country ",
but not "Ilham Aliev’s interrupted visit to Georgia". And after
all, foreign visits by the head of Azerbaijan are usually widely
announced. This time it was not, which points to conclusions. It was
a first.
Secondly, it is hardly a coincidence that the Russian and Turkish
sources began to broadcast the same information simultaneously,
as many analysts noted.
Certainly, different versions by many analysts concerning the reasons
for an appreciable aggravation in the Trans-Caucasus situation
are connected in many respects by the fact that the majority of
negotiations – from the Karabakh settlement to the "roadmap" and
"protocols", are conducted behind closed doors. For example, the
Georgetown University Euroasian strategic project director Cory
Welthom suggested it might be possible that "a confidential agreement
on Karabakh" may exist.
If he is right, the recent events in the Trans-Caucasus form a
logical sequence.