RACE FOR LEADERSHIP IN THE REGION GAINS STRENGTH

PanARMENIAN.Net
12.09.2009 GMT+04:00

Russia, in the view of Ankara, cannot yet be taken seriously: judging
by experts’ statements Moscow will not have a policy for the Caucasus
or the Middle East for several more years.

The past week proved to be quieter than usual in the region. But for
minor demarches by Iran on the Caspian, one might get the impression
that almost nothing is going on in the region. But it’s only an
illusion. To the best of their power and opportunities Turkey and
Iran are trying to grab the initiative from each other’s hands and
gain dominance in the region. The chances of the two countries are
roughly equal, if we close our eyes to the fact that Iran has oil,
gas and a nuclear program.

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Against all this Turkey can only set off her flexible
diplomacy, the second largest army in NATO and the dictates of the
General Staff, despite the attempts of the Islamists to limit the
influence of the army on decision-making. However, after the failure
of the Israeli-Syrian negotiations, the mediator of which was the
Turkish Foreign Ministry, a kind of lull come over the region,
later to be broken by the promulgation of the Protocols on the
normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. But presently the main
concern of Turkey is how to solve the "Kurdish problem" with minimal
losses. To achieve this goal Ankara is ready to almost everything,
including invasion into Northern Iraq. According to the report of the
RAND Corporation, Turkey could occupy Kirkuk and Mosul, not paying
much attention to the USA, especially since the U.S. withdraws her
troops from Iraq next year. Ankara will try to annex Kurdistan and
make semblance of the Kurdish autonomy, instantly solving the nearly
century-old problem. The question only is whether the neighboring
countries will allow Turkey to take such a step. Kirkuk and Mosul
are a road leading to oil reserves, which, largely, will not bring
prosperity to Turkey, but will help to fortify her position. However,
first Ankara would have to face the implacable standpoint of Iran,
which would not tolerate anyone superior to her in the region. And
here, as a constraint to Ankara will serve the nuclear program. Tehran
could also finally decide her relations with Armenia and Russia, thus
setting her axis against Turkey, which looks quite weak without the
U.S. and Israeli assistance. In this regard, both the normalization of
Armenian-Turkish relations and the regulation of the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict seem no closer than 5 years ago.

On the other hand, Turkey should not now set hopes on the United
States; the country is not yet able to combat crisis. Russia, too,
in the view of Ankara cannot yet be taken seriously; judging by
experts’ statements Moscow will not have a policy for the Caucasus
or the Middle East for several more years. The RF is still thinking
in terms of the collapsed USSR, failing to notice the realities of
the new world in which, alas, she occupies no position yet. At least,
so believe the Russian experts and now Moscow needs a clear, if not
an open policy on regional matters.

The unipolar world has come to an end, but a multi-polar world
does not mean an equal game between Russia and Turkey, or say,
China. The regional players of growing power now refuse the dictates
of superpowers and, in fact, there repeats itself the story of the
economic boom of the Asian tigers of the 80s. In the light of still
backstage changes, map of the region may radically change in the
near future. The South Caucasus countries would be given to someone
in return for hegemony or as compensation. However, who will be that
someone is still unknown. In all probability, Georgia and Azerbaijan
will go split, while Armenia icult situation. Ratification or rejection
of ratification of the Armenian-Turkish Protocols will not change
anything: Armenia will have to follow the rules accepted throughout
the world – the strong are the ones to dictate.

Against this background, the position of the "offended Iran", which
had not been invited to the meeting of Caspian states, seems somewhat
frivolous. Moreover, the President of Russia stressed that no decision
on the Caspian Sea would be made without participation of Iran. The
reluctance to Baku to see Iran at the table of negotiations on the
Caspian Sea is quite justified. Baku wants to unilaterally dispose
of all wealth, though knowing that no one will let her do it. Key
events in the region will, most likely, begin close to the beginning of
October, when the date fixed by the Protocols expires. And much depends
on how the entire history of the normalization of Armenian-Turkish
relations will end.