THE UNITED STATES POLICIES IN THE CAUCASUS COULD LEAD TO FURTHER RUSSIAN INFLUENCE
Stacy Maruskin

Journal of Turkish Weekly
Sept 16 2009

Russia has always been a powerhouse in the global community and
the Caucasus. Throughout the centuries Russians have occupied vast
lands, and today their influence can still be seen and felt in many
countries. Despite the end of the Cold War, it has not translated
into warm, friendly relations devoid of strain between Russia and the
rest of the world. Russia still poses a threat to Western interests
in the region and the Obama administration’s hesitancy to give actual
and continual support for the pro-western countries of the Caucasus
could be explained by the large, influential Armenian Diaspora of the
United States. The Diaspora has influenced policies in the U.S. and
if they continue to seep further into foreign policy making, it will
not only be Armenia who relies on Russia for support, but Azerbaijan
could fall victim as well.

Throughout the years following Armenian independence, Russia and
Armenia have remained close consorts while Azerbaijan and Georgia have
sought Turkish and American support as their key to the West. There is
a cultural bridge which links Turkey to these countries. Turkey and
Azerbaijan share a common language and religion while strong social
links exist between Turkey and Georgia. For instance, millions of
Georgians live in Turkey and Georgia has always seen Turkey as a
friendly country that balances Russian antagonism. Armenia views
Russia as its protector from over 100 million Turks that surround
its borders: 72 million within Turkey, around eight million Azeri
Turks in Azerbaijan and nearly 30 million Azeri Turks in Iran. While
the other former Soviet Republics have tried to expand their foreign
relations outside of Moscow, Armenians have headed in the opposite
direction, increasing their diplomatic and economic ties with the
country. Armenia’s lack of natural resources and relative poverty has
led to further dependence on Russia, and much of the infrastructure
within Armenia is owned by Russian companies.

The oil and gas rich region of the Southern Caucasus serve both Europe
and the United States’ economic interests. Russia’s recent attachment
to the region is due to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin’s desire to
show that Russia is back as an international actor. Habibe Ozdal,
a Russian and Black Seas researcher at the International Strategic
Research Organization (USAK) based in Ankara, says, "After the
dissolution of the USSR, the power of the Southern Caucasus belonged
to the United States as well as Turkey, due to the latter’s brotherly
image for the Turkic peoples; however, since 2000, Russia has strongly
emphasized that the Caucasus region is its backyard and is pushing
for a pro-Russian agenda." Ozdal also reiterates sentiments that
Russia now wants to strengthen its energy monopoly in the region;
if it can assert its influence in the Caucasus and in Central Asia,
international actors like the United States will become dependent
upon Russia and risk falling victim to the activities of the Armenian
Diaspora in the U.S. Recent policy implementations pushed by the
Armenian Diaspora which are not favorable to Georgia or Azerbaijan
will deteriorate closer relations between the U.S. and the Caucasus
and damage any hopes for less energy dependency on Russia. If for
this reason alone, the U.S. needs to work on turning its words into
action for a strategic partnership in the Caucasus.

* The Energy and Oil Pipelines

As energy economist John Foster writes in his article, Afghanistan
and the New Great Game, "Pipelines are important today in the same way
that railway building was important in the 19th century. They connect
trading partners and influence the regional balance of power." (1)

Aside from the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipeline which transfers
gas from the Shah Deniz-I field to Turkey via Georgia and the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan Crude Oil Pipeline which lies between Turkey
and Azerbaijan; there is the Nabucco Project which aims to decrease
Europe’s energy dependence on Russia. (2)

Europe’s need for energy diversification has become apparent through
pipeline projects like Nabucco. However, due to the recent conflict
in Georgia, the European Union has expressed concerns over whether
Georgia should play as large a role as it was initially given. The
conflict between Russia and Georgia last summer has left a bitter
aftertaste and with the signing of the Nabucco pipeline deal in July,
some are wondering if Georgia can handle its role in the project. In
the article, Tbilisi’s Energy Future Dims, Peter Doran writes that
Georgia had previously enjoyed a privileged seat at the Nabucco table
due to their status as a strategic non Russian energy transport link
between the Caspian Sea and Europe. However, with the announcement of
plans to produce 31 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year from a
new joint-venture in Iraqi Kurdistan, Georgia would be bypassed. (3)
Each of those pipelines have one thing in common: they have all ignored
Armenia as a passageway which has not pleased the Armenian Diaspora in
the States and has most likely led to the contradictory rhetoric of
Vice President Joe Biden and President Barack Obama. In his article,
Doran touches on the inconsistency of their statements and points out
that Georgia’s strategic importance to the EU and the United States as
a transport corridor will only grow less critical with every cubic
meter of Iraqi natural gas supplied to Europe. Although Armenia
claims economically that it makes no sense for their country to be
bypassed and they should be incorporated into the pipeline routes,
the EU and the United States both seem to favor avoiding the all
together troubled Caucasus region if possible.

* The Armenian Diaspora and Caucasus Policies

Turkey was one of the first states to recognize Armenian independence
in 1991; however, Turkey shortly closed its territorial borders
with Armenia due to the latter’s occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh. The
Nagorno-Karabakh region is 20% of Azerbaijan’s territory. In 1993, with
the passage of UN Security Council Resolution 822, Nagorno-Karabakh
was declared part of Azerbaijan, and the resolution insisted that
Armenian forces withdraw from the region. A withdrawal has yet to
occur and as a result, the Turkey-Armenia and Azerbaijan-Armenia land
borders have remained closed. At present, Turkey is insisting that
before the border can be re-opened, the conflict must be settled,
and this pre-condition has upset the United States, who is currently
sponsoring the normalization talks between Turkey and Armenia.

It is possible that the Armenian Diaspora has become more influential
in politics than those living within the country itself, especially
when it comes to domestic Armenian politics. Their influence also has
a firm grip on U.S. policy making. Although the 9th U.S. Circuit Court
of Appeals has recently declared unconstitutional, a law which allowed
descendents of Armenians killed during the 1915 incidents access to
their ancestors’ bank accounts and insurance policies, it is still a
prime example of their reach. The presiding Judge David Thompson said,
"The conflict is clear on the face of the statute: by using the phrase,
‘Armenian Genocide,’ California has defied the President’s foreign
policy preferences."

Forty states have passed resolutions which recognize the incidents
of 1915 as the Armenian ‘genocide.’ and the Diaspora has initiated a
smear campaign against Turkey in the United States which, naturally,
has not pleased Ankara.

These events are a testament to the Diaspora’s power and influence
within the American political system and the effects it has on
U.S. policies, both domestic and foreign. The Diaspora does not approve
of Armenia being sidestepped in the pipeline issue, it does not want
Turkey to carry out a successful plan to open up the borders through
the use of preconditions and it wants the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to
be resolved in Armenia’s favor. The Diaspora also does not wish to see
Armenia surrounded by a Turkic bloc and it is aware of Azerbaijan’s
vital importance to the West if it wishes to continue with energy,
transportation and military projects within the country. All of this
culminates in a further desire to steer favorable U.S. policies away
from Azerbaijan and Georgia, something the U.S. cannot afford to
continue doing.

Biden and Obama have each gone back and forth in their rhetoric
which offers something between mediocre and strong support in terms
of a strategic partnership with Azerbaijan and Georgia; it is no
wonder they back peddle with such a large and wealthy Armenian voter
constituency to remind them when they offer too much backing. However,
if this strategic partnership does not come to fruition soon, Georgia
might move on, especially since its defense has yet to be bolstered
despite U.S. promises.

* The Roles of Turkey and the United States in the Caucasus

The United States has pushed for Turkey to open its land borders
and throw out the precondition that the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
be resolved before restoring diplomatic relations with Armenia. They
believe that friendlier relations with Turkey could encourage Armenia
to back away from Russian support and join its neighbors in their
Western ambitions. Unfortunately, this is unlikely to occur, and
Dr. Sedat Laciner, director of USAK believes, "It is not possible
for them to leave the Russian bloc due to bilateral agreements and
the mass Russian ownership of infrastructure within the country. They
will not turn away from Russia and now the United States could lose
Azerbaijan and Georgia because of the Armenian Diaspora."

The United States’ prodding for Turkey to remove preconditions or
accelerate the opening of its Armenian border is a lost cause. The
Karabakh problem might never be solved since the population is now
100% Armenian due to nearly one million Azeris being forced from
their homes over the years. Recently, Representative Frank Pallone,
the co-chair of the Congressional Caucus on Armenian Issues, stated
that, "I believe personally that the United States should recognize
Nagorno-Karabakh. I certainly would be willing to do whatever I can
to have that happen." He also declared that the region had a right
to be an independent nation and that, "…what you really need to
do is to have the State Department change its position." This is yet
another example of the influence the Armenian Diaspora and lobby have
in the United States.

Turkey has worked hard to build a foundation with Azerbaijan and
Georgia so that they can look to Turkey for support rather than their
former occupier, Russia. Turkey has tried to unite the three through
economic and transportation projects and their ultimate aim has
been to aid these two in their efforts for NATO accession. However,
Azerbaijan and Georgia both know that Turkey cannot protect them
in the wake of a Russian threat without subjecting itself to the
turmoil of war, a risk it would not take. Therefore, by striking
preemptively and accepting what they might believe is an inevitable
future, a forced partnership with Russia if they are rejected by the
West, they can reduce this threat by turning to the former before any
looming threats become a reality. After last summer’s conflict between
Russia, Georgia, and the separatist groups from South Ossetia and
Abkhazia, Russia recognized those regions of Georgia as independent
states and Georgia’s Parliament passed a resolution which declared
both regions Russian-occupied territories. With Russia’s support,
these territories are already under their influence.

The Obama administration should further nurture the desire of
Azerbaijan and Georgia to be integrated with the West through their
admittance into NATO and friendly relations with Turkey. They need
to contribute to the strategic partnership with action and not
only words. Since their independence, Azerbaijan and Georgia have
expressed those wishes by pulling back on their ties with Moscow and
strengthening their relations with Ankara. If ignored, Azerbaijan
might feel it must go back into the arms of Russia for stability
and security. The West has no interest in watching Russia expand
its sphere of influence so why ignore the aspirations of these two
countries. The Armenian Diaspora has overwhelming numbers in the
United States and amazingly, there are more Armenians living abroad
than in the country itself. Its influence in U.S. policy making has
reached deeper and deeper into foreign relations in recent years and
has the ability to strain U.S. relations with Azerbaijan, Georgia
and Turkey. It has already pushed for the U.S. Congress to recognize
the events of 1915 as genocide and it continues to influence foreign
policy as can be seen with the case of Georgia and Azerbaijan. The
lobby’s influence has also prevented the U.S. from giving credits
to the proposed railway projects which would unite the Caucasus with
Turkey. The U.S. should show further support for initiatives in the
region, specifically those regarding the pipelines.

If the United States is not careful, Russia could expand its influence
in the region, creating a pro-Russian bloc. If Russia wins the hearts
of the Azeris and with Georgia’s breakaway territories already
in Russia’s back pocket, a chain of countries would be formed
linking Russia directly by border to its close friend, Iran. The
recent sentiments announced by newly-elected NATO Secretary General
Anders Rasmussen that Georgia (and Ukraine as well) was not ready to
become a member and its accession was "hypothetical" at the moment,
does not help the situation. Azerbaijan asserts that its policies
are independent from the influence of the West and Russia; however,
if Azerbaijan forms closer relations with Russia, this will not bode
well for the United States and Europe in the long run. They have been
looking for alternatives to Russian power and influence in energy and
with burgeoning relations between Russia and its former satellites,
Western influence in the Caucasus could be displaced. The Obama
administration must turn rhetoric into action and strengthen the
strategic alliance between itself and the Caucasus while offering
support and aid before the U.S. distances itself from viable interests
and let the Caucasus fall straight into the lap of Russia.