OPENING THE OPENINGS

Hurriyet Daily News
Sept 18 2009
Turkey

Not all Azerbaijanis are the same, of course. Thinking that nations
are homogenous or they think alike is not right. Yet, various views are
being voiced in Azerbaijan, and we note them as long as the Azerbaijani
dictatorship allows. However, when it comes to the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict we do not hear much other than "someday Armenians will have
to evacuate the Azerbaijani territory because we have oil but they
are poor." We haven’t heard of a reasonable solution yet.

On the contrary, Azerbaijan and, for that matter, Armenia, being
anti-democratic countries, there is no solution other than ethnic
cleansing-based land swap in sight.

This is also the point where Turkey is stuck, too. Turkey, having
a border conflict with Armenia for years now, faces an impasse. The
Karabakh region is not a piece of land over which the issue can be
settled easily through democratic and modern ways. The dialogue and
reconciliation approach Turkey considers as part of the government’s
Kurdish move is not the answer to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and
will not be on the agenda in the near future. The nationalist soul
mates, Republican People’s Party, or CHP, and Nationalist Movement
Party, or MHP, and the Azerbaijani authorities are aware Turkey’s
dilemma. This is the reason they hopelessly keep repeating to pressure
the government that the unique solution in the Karabakh issue is
the return of the territory to Azerbaijan. This is a very thin and
dangerous line for the government and the reformist circles. At the end
of the day, vague language of protocols signals that the Turkey-Armenia
border can be re-opened if Armenia withdraws from five Azerbaijani
regions neighboring the Karabakh territory. In fact, to expect more
moves, at least for now, is nonsense if we want to see a re-opening
of the border.

In this context, it is important to note irresponsible attitudes of
the CHP and MHP regarding Turkey’s democratic future. For instance,
the MHP is ready to shamelessly deny the contacts they had before the
death of the legendary MHP leader Alparslan TurkeÅ~_ with the then
Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrossian for the sake of reconciliation
between Turkey and Armenia. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, is eager to
defy nationalist emotions through the myth of "two states, one nation"
where no one knows what exactly it means. But Azerbaijan is a state
that somehow fails to recognize the Turkish Cyprus, an issue dear to
nationalist circles.

There is a coalition of forces trying to sabotage Turkey’s
initiatives, to block its way ahead and to leave the country alone in
seclusion. Efforts of civil groups in support of the "openings" are as
important as the government’s will power. Similarly, the pro-Kurdish
Democratic Society Party, or DTP, should be able to support the
opening toward Armenia, as they do regarding the "Kurdish opening."

Is it Cyprus’ turn?

Could a Greek/Cypriot opening possibly follow the Armenian and Kurdish
openings? The latest developments nurture concerns and pessimism
as much as prudent optimism. Not much new information came out of
Davutoglu’s contacts in Turkish Cyprus. The reunification talks are
as important for Turkey as they are for the island. If the Armenian
and Kurdish questions are the two legs, the Greek/Cypriot issue
is the third leg. Any development in this aspect will be serious
enough to provide steps for durable political stability in the
country. The government is partly in control of the Armenian and
Kurdish initiatives. However, it is difficult to say that it is in full
control over the Greek/Cypriot issue. While ongoing counter terrorist
operations against the PKK have the potential to derail the Kurdish
opening, the compulsory blessing of the army in the Cyprus issue
has similar potential to derail the negotiations. The invisible side
at the negotiation table for the Cyprus talks is perhaps the Turkish
Armed Forces, or TSK. The very same TSK is said to show force and doing
sorties over the Dodecanese and Lesbos Island. In other words, may God
protect us from "closures" in the Greek/Cypriot matter as we try to
make openings in the Armenian and Kurdish conflicts. Possible tensions
on that end may have the potential to harm the other initiatives.