ARMENIA AND TURKEY ARE CHANGING THE CAUCASUS: ALEXANDER JACKSON

Tert
Sept 18 2009
Armenia

The Protocols on establishing and developing Armenian-Turkish
relations, which omit any reference to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict,
seem to reverse statements made earlier which said that the opening
of the Armenian-Turkish border is contingent on settling the
Karabakh issue, stated Alexander Jackson in the Caucasian Review of
International Affairs, as reported by the Azeri Press Agency.

Jackson goes on to say that if no progress is made on Karabakh by the
end of the six-week process, Azerbaijan’s options would be to hold
off on the Nabucco pipeline and increase cooperation with Russia,
in order to reroute gas in Azerbaijan through Russia’s network.

In Jackson’s words, domestic political upheaval in either Armenia
or Turkey is a real risk, particularly Armenia, which will have to
deal with engaging Turkey and withdrawing from the occupied regions
around Nagorno-Karabakh simultaneously. A serious domestic setback
could stall all regional peace processes for the near future.

"Azerbaijan’s position is crucial, and is inflexible. Exactly what it
will – or can – do if Turkey opens the border without Armenian gestures
on Karabakh is impossible to establish at this stage, but gas projects
from the Caspian to the West are clearly under threat. This would
ruin Turkey’s reputation as an energy hub, one of its key attractions
for the EU. Russia would lose some of its influence over Armenia,
but could gain far greater power over Azerbaijan’s energy exports,
reshaping the whole oil and gas game in the region," says Jackson.

Jackson concludes by saying that "Most strikingly, we could see an
end to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ankara axis, which has proved one of the most
enduring alliances in Eurasia. The next six weeks could reshape the
Caucasus as we know it."