AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL ANALYSTS PREDICT A BREAKTHROUGH IN SOLUTION OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT

Trend
Sept 16 2009
Azerbaijan

The Azerbaijani political analysts predict a breakthrough in the
solution of the Armenian -Azerbaijani Nagorno-Karabakh conflict.

"I am convinced of Ankara’s position on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
is consistent and will remain so. I cannot imagine the Karabakh
dispute to remain suspended while the Turkey-Armenia relations were
being normalized. Taking into account the situation in the region,
I think there will be a breakthrough in resolving the conflict,"
Rasim Agayev, Azerbaijani independent political scientist, said at
a roundtable on "The settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and
Armenian-Turkish relations. Parallel processes or …." on Sept.16

On Aug. 31, Turkey and Armenia in the talks mediated by Switzerland
reached an agreement to launch "internal political consultations"
to sign the Protocol on Establishment of Diplomatic Relations and
Protocol on Development of Bilateral Relations, the Turkish Foreign
Ministry reported.

The political consultations will complete within six weeks. Afterwards,
two protocols to be submitted for approval by the parliaments of two
countries will besigned," the same source added.

At present, Turkey does not plan to disclose the borders with the
neighboring Armenia, Turkish Foreign Minister, Ahmet Davudoglu said.

There are no diplomatic relations between Turkey and Armenia and the
borders have been closed since 1993.

The conflict between the two South Caucasus countries began in 1988
when Armenia made territorial claims against Azerbaijan. Armenian armed
forces have occupied 20 percent of Azerbaijan since 1992, including
the Nagorno-Karabakh region and 7 surrounding districts. Azerbaijan
and Armenia signed a ceasefire agreement in 1994. The co-chairs of
the OSCE Minsk Group – Russia, France, and the U.S. – are currently
holding the peace negotiations.

According to Agayev, each country in the South Caucasus has its own
opportunities. "The Armenians’ positions in the world are strong enough
due to powerful Armenian lobby. However, Azerbaijan has strategic
springboard and energy. At present, Armenia seriously relies on the
improvement of the situation after opening borders and moves towards
the resolution. Turkey, of course, must proceed from its national
interests that are vast and varied. I am sure that Ankara’s position
on the Nagorno-Karabakh consistent is consistent and will remain so,"
the political scientist said.

Armenians; efforts to achieve half-recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh
will be the first step towards full recognition, independent political
analyst, Zardusht Alizade, said.

"Regardless the content of the protocol, I believe the movements in
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict are hiding behind this. If this were
an open declaration, then the government, disliked by more powerful
political forces, would change in Armenia. We should expect the
signing of a framework agreement in several months," Alizade said.