"FOOTBALL" DIPLOMACY BETWEEN ARMENIA AND TURKEY ONCE AGAIN SLIDING INTO IMPASSE

World Markets Research Centre
Global Insight
September 21, 2009

As Armenia celebrates its 18th year of independence today, large
crowds are expected to join the protestors who have been demonstrating
for the past week in front of the foreign ministry in the capital,
Yerevan–some of whom are on hunger strike. They are demanding that
the Armenian government rethinks controversial concessions made to
Turkey as part of the Armenian-Turkish preliminary protocols signed
earlier this month (seeTurkey – Armenia: 1 September 2009:). The
government insists that no concession was made and that the border with
Turkey will open soon. However, last Friday (18 September), Armenian
foreign minister Eduard Nalbandian acknowledged in a press release
that Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had effectively
retracted from the protocols by stating that Turkey would not open
its borders before the resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Significance:Armenian-Turkish relations are experiencing a tentative
thaw. On 23 April, the Armenian government made significant concessions
to the Turkish government by signing a preliminary protocol,
just a day before the commemoration of the Armenian genocide (a
definition that is not universally recognised) during the First World
War. The move signified a temporary softening in Armenia’s pursuit
of international recognition of the genocide. Opening borders with
Armenia is a precondition for Turkey’s European Union membership,
and would also clear a major roadblock to the economic development
of Turkey’s eastern regions. Erdogan’s backtracking shows the
controversy of the protocols at home; the military in particular
is opposed to making any concessions in Turko-Armenian ties. His
statement effectively stalls the diplomatic process, and makes the
planned visit of Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian to Turkey in
October much more unlikely. Turkey and Armenia will most probably
decide to delay their upcoming meeting and try to calm nerves at home.