Australia-Israel Jewish Affairs Council

AIJAC welcomes the re-listing of Hezbollah, calls for further action

Moscow Express

Author:Yehonathan Tommer25/09/2009

By Yehonathan Tommer

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s secret visit to Moscow on
September 7 sparked a wave of speculation in the Israeli media. When
rumours of the trip circulated a few days later, Netanyahu’s advisers
confirmed that the prime minister’s unscheduled trip was part of an
ongoing dialogue with Russian officials to dissuade them from
supplying strategic arms to the Middle East. The secret and sudden
nature of the trip ` following up an official visit by Israeli
President Shimon Peres in mid-August ` led to the publication of
numerous rumours, reports and debate about the spark for the urgent
meeting and what was discussed.

It is certainly true that Russia’s relationship with Israel today is a
far cry from the Cold War hostility displayed by the former Soviet
Union. Thawed relations have progressively normalised since the Soviet
collapse 20 years ago and subsequent mass Jewish immigration to
Israel. Two decades of diplomatic relations have evolved into a
comprehensive dialogue at the highest state levels, marked by top
ranking government exchanges and close cooperation in the fields of
aerospace, nano, bio and medical technology, agricultural development,
resources and tourism.

The diplomatic dialogue is `very fruitful and very intensive,’
according to a senior Israeli foreign ministry official. `The
President, Prime Minister and Foreign Minister are key figures in the
exchange of ideas which raise all the expected issues and political
questions affecting relations between the two states,’ he said.

The good civilian bilateral relationship, however, has not produced
converging strategic interests. Israel sharply differs with Russian
positions on key Middle East issues ` especially with respect to
Iran’s nuclear program and possible international sanctions on Iran;
and the supply of strategic weapons to I
ir transfer to the Hamas and Hezbollah terrorist organisations.

Another difference is Moscow’s hope to host an international peace
conference on the Middle East ` designed to challenge American
leadership and restore Moscow’s profoundly eroded influence in the
Arab world. Israeli leaders and senior officials have categorically
vetoed Israel’s participation in any Russian-sponsored peace
conference, `anywhere in the world,’ if Hamas and Hezbollah are
present, America is absent and if Russia’s role is not clearly
restricted.

No amount of the `sincere and open dialogue,’ described by Israeli
Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman following a June 3 meeting in
Moscow with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov, has bridged their
differences. Lieberman, a former Soviet immigrant and strong advocate
of closer ties, confirmed that the two countries found `little common
ground on the situation in Lebanon, Sudan, Iraq and other pressing
issues.’

Sharp differences over Iran’s nuclear program, missile sales

Israel has persistently alerted the international community to Iran’s
undeclared nuclear agenda and repeatedly called for tough and urgent
international sanctions against Iran by the United Nations Security
Council to prevent it from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability.

The Russians, who helped build the nuclear reactor at Bushehr,
apparently see Iran as an inevitable nuclear power whose interests
will have to be accommodated. They have said the process is
irreversible and expressed doubt that Iran has an undeclared nuclear
weapons program. In principle, Moscow opposes an Iranian nuclear
weapons capability which would spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle
East with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria and even Jordan. But it continues
to reject international sanctions which would damage its lucrative
arms trade, isolate Iran and encourage it to acquire nuclear weapons
in self defence.

Russia’s position appears now to be changing, says Yaacov Livney who
heads the Euro-Asia desk at Israel’s Forei
stry. `Moscow increasingly realises, along with the Americans, the
Europeans, Israel and the rest of the world, that Iran’s international
behaviour is dishonest.’ It has a `growing understanding of the
dangers of an Iranian nuclear threat,’ he says, and can hopefully be
persuaded to support a United Nations Security Council decision for
tougher sanctions. `Until now this understanding has been
insufficiently translated into action in the Security Council but we
hope this too, will change.’

Russian missile sales to Iran are equally contentious. Israel wants
the sales `stopped altogether’. The Russians hedge, reassuring they
will not sell weapons `that can violate the delicate balance in the
Middle East,’ and would reconsider future sales.

Shimon Peres said a pledge was given to him at a meeting with his
Russian presidential counterpart at Dmitry Medvedev’s Black Sea summer
resort on Aug. 19. The Russians denied such a promise. Days later,
Medvedev sent a message to Jerusalem agreeing to hold secret
discussions at the level of expert officials, according to
Haaretz. The paper reported that Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s
secret Moscow meeting had primarily involved urging Russian defence
experts in Moscow to cancel Russia’s proposed sale of S-300 advanced
long range anti-aircraft missiles to Teheran ` which would strongly
bolster Iran’s air defences around its nuclear installations.

Central Asian power politics

Russia has a vital interest in engaging Iran, which it views as a
major regional player, to counter balance China’s growing interests in
central Asia, says Dr. Nugzar Ter-Oganov a Russian specialist at Tel
Aviv University’s Centre for Iranian Studies. Iran and Russia are
geopolitical rivals with competing interests in selling Caspian Sea
crude oil and natural gas to India and other countries. Stabilising
its southern flank with Iran bordering on Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan,
Armenia and Turkey can also help to reduce friction and avoid
potential Islamic incitement ins
de the Russian Federation, says Dr. Ter-Oganov.

The Russians further believe that they can enhance their world
standing through constructive dialogue with Iran, even if this
aggravates tensions with the United States and the European Union in
central Europe and the Middle East, writes former Israeli diplomat Zvi
Magen in a recent article published by Tel Aviv University’s Institute
for National Security Studies.

Magen forecasts that Russia is likely to support Teheran’s nuclear
program while `intelligently neutralising international attempts at
containment.’

Israel hopes to persuade Russia’s leaders that their appeasement of
Iranian nuclear ambitions endangers Russian interests and world
stability and to throw their support behind tougher international
sanctions in the Security Council.

Strategic Discord

The Israeli President also was upbeat about Medvedev’s reported
intention to upgrade Russia’s strategic relationship with Israel `to
the same level with Germany, France and Italy.’

However, Hebrew University specialist Amnon Sela doubts that Moscow
and Jerusalem have a genuine strategic axis, `unless secret military
intelligence agreements were signed and not published.’ Former prime
minister Ariel Sharon tried to forge one to counter balance Israel’s
dependence on the United States. But when Sharon demanded that their
agreement to cooperate in the war against international terrorism
should define their mutual obligations and actions, the Russians
baulked and matters ground to a halt.

Israel’s intimate strategic relationship with the United States is
unrivalled and Washington would be certain to veto a comparable and
unlikely Israeli relationship with Russia, Sela says. `Israel and
Russia have no common foe. Unlike Israel and the United States, Moscow
has disagreed with them on every aspect of the Iranian nuclear
threat.’

The baffling hijacking in mid July of the Arctic Sea, a Maltese vessel
with a Russian crew sailing under a Finnish flag stimulated theories
of a plot invol
gence, to intercept the vessel. It is alleged that the vessel,
supposedly carrying timber, was actually carrying a concealed shipment
of smuggled Russian S-300 anti-aircraft and X-500 anti-naval missiles
for the Middle East,

Ron Ben Yishai, military commentator at Israel’s largest circulation
daily, Yediot Ahronot, pretty convincingly refuted this conspiracy,
suggesting that the most likely explanation is that Russian
intelligence agents themselves hijacked and then released the Arctic
Sea in a complex operation directed against illicit Russian arms
smugglers working out of the Russian military enclave in Kaliningrad.

None of the governments involved commented. Yet some commentators
speculated that Peres was cleverly invited to Russia on Aug. 19, the
day after the Arctic Sea had been released, to personally thank
President Medvedev for preventing the missiles from reaching their
destination.

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