Turkish Daily News

Government steps timely but not risk-free, analysts say

Friday, September 25, 2009

FULYA Ã-ZERKAN – Ä°ZGÄ° GÃ`NGÃ-R

ANKARA – Hürriyet Daily News

Despite opposition, Ankara has taken consecutive steps toward
resolving the Kurdish, Armenian and Cyprus issues. Political analysts
say leaving the three problems unresolved would result in more serious
consequences rather than any kind of advantage

The government’s policy to settle the three challenging and drawn out
questions, namely the Armenian, Kurdish and Cyprus issues, is
considered `proactive’ and `timely’ given the current global
conjecture under the new U.S. administration, but it is not risk-free,
according to political analysts.

On the Kurdish front, Ankara has pledged to resolve the long-lasting
issue through a combination of short-, medium- and long-term projects
in defiance of the opposition. On the Armenian front, it has launched
a process to normalize ties with Yerevan, which also revived
international talks under the Organization for Security and
Cooperation of Europe’s Minsk Group for a final settlement to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. And on the Cyprus front, the government
campaigned for a `yes’ vote for a U.N.-backed peace plan and despite
the plan’s failure, Ankara encourages the current negotiations between
the Cypriot leaders, who are readying for the give-and-take stages in
October.

`What are the common denominators of the three problems? As long as
the three remain on Turkey’s agenda, they will all have a negative
impact on the country’s domestic policy, which is a source of
instability,’ veteran diplomat and former Foreign Ministry
Undersecretary Ã-zdem Sanberk told the Hürriyet Daily News &
Economic Review.

He said international conjecture was also suitable for the
government’s `proactive policies’ on the three fronts, adding that the
United States, the EU and Russia remained agnostic or neutral, meaning
they neither gave open support nor blocked the efforts.

`Under the current only two options for the government: either leaving
the frozen conflicts as they are or, despite the lack of support,
taking further steps to overcome them,’ said Sanberk. `The government
chose the second option and demonstrated the will for peace, though I
see the chances of success on the three issues as low,’ he said.

The government’s steps to solve the three issues have all met with
harsh criticism from opposition parties and even threatened friendly
relations with Azerbaijan on the Armenian front, for example.

`If all three problems could be resolved spontaneously depends on the
government’s will and determination,’ said retired ambassador
Yalım Eralp.

`On the Armenian issue, the normalization of ties depends on Armenia’s
relations with Azerbaijan, while on the Cyprus problem, the prospects
for a solution became weaker due to Turkey’s own complicated EU
process,’ he said. `The content of the Kurdish plan is not yet clear,
so it is hard to make an assumption.’

Conjecture appropriate

Fuat Keyman, professor of international relations at Koç
University, said the ball was in Turkey’s court, stressing that the
government should utilize the positive atmosphere initiated by the
Obama administration.

`I believe the government will catch some extent of success. There are
risks but I think the advantages outweigh the disadvantages if Ankara
manages to turn them into positive results,’ he said.

On the Kurdish issue, he said public support was on the rise despite
the political opposition, adding that recently established cooperation
mechanisms with both Syria and Iraq, both of which have Kurdish
populations, were also a plus.

`Regarding Armenia, there are problems, but even if Parliament gives
conditional support to the planned protocols with Yerevan, the process
has already started,’ he said. On Cyprus, Keyman said he believed the
proactive policy would bear fruit in the end, referring to the Turkish
prime minister’s address to the U.N. Security Council in New York.

Mensurt Istanbul’s Kültür University, said the three problems
were separate with different interlocutors and solution models.

`Unilateral moves and goodwill will not be enough for a solution to
the Armenian and Cyprus problems,’ said Akgün. `If the
pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party [DTP] insists on its current
approach, the problem will remain unresolved. The Armenians should be
flexible with the Nagorno-Karabakh problem. Regarding Cyprus, whatever
action Turkey takes, it is a challenging problem that can only be
solved with contributions from both Cypriot communities,’ he said.