Today’s Zaman

27 September 2009, Sunday

Turkey may change foreign policy regarding Turkish Cyprus by 2010

Turkish foreign policy will probably have a different outlook
regarding the Cyprus issue by 2010 if reunification talks on the
island fail.

Turkey will certainly face many challenges trying to get the Turkish
Republic of Northern Cyprus (KKTC) recognized by other countries.

Speaking at the 64th Session of the UN General Assembly on Thursday,
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip ErdoÄ?an said, `A peace plan
to unify the island drawn [up] as a result of the second phase of the
negotiations should be brought to referendum by spring 2010 before the
presidential election in Turkish Cyprus.’ Warning about the
possibility that Greek Cypriots may fail to accept a peace plan for a
second time, ErdoÄ?an implied that Turkey may take steps to lift
the economic isolation. `If the Greek Cypriots will not again agree on
a peace plan like the 2004 Annan plan to unify the island, then
normalizing the status of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus in
the international arena will be a must that can no longer be delayed,’
ErdoÄ?an warned UN-member countries. Stressing that they can no
longer accept protracted problems, ErdoÄ?an said: `It must be
understood that negotiations cannot last forever. The present window
of opportunity cannot stay open forever, and there is an absolute need
to make the process successful.’

This statement appears to be rather a remarkable indication that
Turkey will take steps to get the KKTC recognized. Though diplomatic
efforts for the recognition of Turkish Cyprus have not visibly
increased since the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) came to
power in 2002, this is the first time Turkey has explicitly made it
obvious that it may launch diplomatic efforts to promote recognition
of the KKTC as an independent state since 2004. Northern Cyprus is in
an unfavorable position compared to Greek Cyprus, since southern
Cyprus is a member of the EU yet northern Cyrus is severely deprived
under hefty economic isolation.

Greek Cyprus says solution is far

While meeting with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, Greek Cypriot
leader Dimitris Christofias said the solution of the Cyprus issue is
very difficult to accomplish. `Saying no to the 2004 UN plan in Cyprus
means saying no to the UN in the peace process,’ Mehmet
Hasgüler, one of the most prominent experts on Cyprus, said to
Sunday’s Zaman while evaluating the speech ErdoÄ?an made at the
UN General Assembly on Thursday with respect to the recognition of
Turkish Cyprus in case a peace plan is rejected by Greek Cyprus in
2010.

`Greek Cyprus was accepted into the EU a week after it rejected the
Annan plan,’ Hasgüler continued. `A normative assumption held
by the EU then was that Turkey and Turkish Cyprus would take steps
toward the unification of the island.’ Many governments before the
ruling AK Party’s government had sought to make other countries
recognize Turkish Cyprus. However, long-stalled negotiations following
the Annan plan referendum in 2004 resumed in September 2008 when the
two leaders of both sides of Cyprus decided to meet face to face to
discuss the disputed points in the unification of the two parts of the
island. The first phase of the negotiations came to an end in August,
and a month later, the second phase of the negotiations t problem to
the international level easily. Starting in spring 2010, Turkey may
initiate a controlled diplomatic process for Turkish Cyprus’
recognition,’ Hasgüler said. Listing the difficulties,
Hasgüler stated that the United Nations Security Council’s
Resolution 541 condemning Turkey’s land grab in Cyprus in 1983 does
not allow any UN member countries to recognize Turkish
Cyprus. `Nonetheless, as a permanent member in the Security Council,
Russia or China may veto this resolution, and thus countries may start
to recognize it,’ the expert stated. Hasgüler claimed that if
Turkey recognizes Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South
Ossetia, then Russia may consider recognizing the KKTC. `If political
recognition will not be possible, at least the lifting of economic
isolation may be a priority for Turkey. Malaysia, Azerbaijan and some
African countries may lead the list in recognizing northern Cyprus if
Turkey starts the diplomatic process for it,’ Hasgüler said.

No tolerance for second rejection

In May 2004 the rejection by Greek Cyprus of the Annan plan to unify
the island steered the process of recognition of Turkish Cyprus
reasonably well particularly after Azerbaijan said it would recognize
Turkish Cyprus. During his visit to Turkey in early 2004, Azerbaijani
President Ä°lham Aliyev said they would recognize the KKTC if
Greek Cypriots said no to the Annan plan during the
referendum. However, the EU pressured Azerbaijan not to recognize the
KKTC, threatening to recognize the self-declared Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic, an Azerbaijani territory occupied by Armenia in the early
1990s. `Greece and Greek Cypriots even sent an official letter to the
Foreign Ministry, noting that they should immediately abandon the idea
of recognizing northern Cyprus. In turn they would recognize
Nagorno-Karabakh’s independence,’ said Vugar Gojayev, then the
International Crisis Group coordinator of Azerbaijan. `This is the
reason why Azerbaijan prefers to stay neutral in this issue,’ he
added. Considering Georgia and Azerbaijan have their own issues with
breakaway regions, it will be hard for these countries to recognize
the KKTC during the initial stage.

In contrast, Turkish Center for International Relations and Strategic
Analysis (TÃ`RKSAM) head Sinan OÄ?an told Sunday’s Zaman:
`Russia will not recognize the KKTC. There are nearly 50,000 offshore
Russian companies in Greek Cyprus, and these companies comprise 12
percent of southern Cyprus’ national income.’ Pointing to
Greek-Russian relations throughout history, OÄ?an said, `Greek
Cyprus and Greece have cultural and historical ties with Russia, and
this will play a role in the recognition of Turkish Cyprus.’

27 September 2009, Sunday
MAHÄ°R ZEYNALOV Ä°STANBUL