The News International

Capital suggestion

Sunday, September 27, 2009
By Dr Farrukh Saleem

Who is America’s enemy number 1? Russians or the Taliban? On August 8,
2008, Russia’s 58th Army invaded South Ossetia. Russian Air Force’s
4th Army of Air Forces and Air Defence bombarded America’s eager ally,
Georgia. America ‘ the US Army being fully deployed in Iraq and
Afghanistan ‘ could only call out for `both sides to show restraint.’

On November 25, 2008, Peter the Great, Russia’s nuclear-powered
Kirov-class battle-cruiser along with Admiral Chabanenko, the
anti-submarine destroyer, participated in naval exercises with the
Venezuelan Navy a mere 1,200 miles from Miami. Now, that hasn’t
happened in the past 20 years. Russia is re-exerting itself over
Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Kyrgyzstan was goaded by the
Kremlin to order the US Air Force (USAF) out of the Manas Air Base
(being used by the US military to support operations in
Afghanistan). Uzbekistan was made to tell the USAF to vacate the
Karshi-Khanabad airbase (the US Air Force was using the base to
support its war in Afghanistan). In 2008, the Russian-led Collective
Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) ‘ with Armenia, Belarus,
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan as members ‘ held the
largest-ever brigade manoeuvres with armoured vehicles, artillery,
aviation, anti-aircraft defence and communications units. The
CSTO is planning an airbase in Osh and another one in Khujand. Russia
is reviving its military installations in Nurek, Kulyab, Dushanbe, and
Kurgan-Tyube. The Russian Air Force is sprucing up its rapid-reaction
Kant Air Base and the Russian Navy is doing the same with its 338th
Communications Hub in Kara-Balta.

Russia is using Iran ‘ they are perhaps using each other ‘ to limit
America’s influence. Russia has threatened to supply Iran with S-300
long-range surface-to-air-missile systems that could potentially
pre-empt an air strike by the Israeli Air Force. Russia’s
Atomstroyexport is building the first VVER-1000/446 reactor power unit
for the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran. In effect, Russia has
managed to defeat America’s attempts to isolate Tehran. Russia is
re-exerting itself in the Baltic region ‘ Latvia, Lithuania and
Estonia. Russia is re-enforcing in the Caucasus ‘ Georgia, Armenia and
Azerbaijan. Russia is fortifying its will in Central Asia ‘
Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

The Russian bear is waking up from its 20-year hibernation. The
Russian bear has a window of opportunity because the US Army’s Brigade
Combat Teams (the `basic deployable unit of manoeuvre in the US Army’)
are all deployed; Iraq (45 BCTs), Afghanistan (eight BCTs), Japan (two
BCTs), Germany (one BCT), South Korea (one BCT) and Bosnia (one BCT).

Now to the Taliban. The Taliban are essentially a non-extraterritorial
entity in the sense that the Taliban do not have transnational
ambitions. Al Qaeda, on the other hand, is an extraterritorial entity
in the sense that Al Qaeda has transnational ambitions. Strategically,
that makes Americans amenable to the Taliban. Furthermore, Al Qaeda’s
operational capability, prima facie, has been depleted to an extent
that Al Qaeda has failed to launch even a single attack on the
mainland US since September 11, 2001.

Obama can continue either the `war on terror’ or take on the resurging
Russian bear; can’t fight them both. In effec
line is much, much longer than Obama’s political timeline. For
America, 2010 is election year while the insurgents have all the time
in the world. For America, 2010 means 440 new members of the
House. For America, 2010 means 34 new members of the Senate. For
America, 2010 means 37 new governors. For Obama, 2011 will be campaign
year. For Obama, 2012 will be election year. The insurgents have all
the time in the world. Pakistan-Afghanistan is the Taliban
homeland. American BCTs are mere visitors here. Russia has the
potential to challenge American hegemony; the Taliban don’t. America
will have to decide: who is America’s enemy number 1? Russians or the
Taliban?

The writer is the executive director of the Centre for Research and
Security Studies (CRSS). Email: farrukh 15@hotmail.com