BOYAJIAN: THE COMING RUSSIAN DEFEAT IN THE CAUCASUS
David Boyajian

8/boyajian-the-coming-russian-defeat-in-the-caucas us/
September 28, 2009

Russia will be well along the road to total defeat by the U.S. and NATO
in the Caucasus and beyond if the recently proposed Armenian-Turkish
protocols are ratified.

Within two months after ratification, Turkey would be required to
open its border with Armenia. Subsequently, or perhaps simultaneously,
the Azerbaijani-Armenian border will open if, as appears increasingly
possible, an Artsakh (Karabagh) peace agreement is signed.

Regardless of whether the Azeri border opens, a fully open
Turkish-Armenian border would inevitably result in the U.S. and NATO
penetration and subjugation of Armenia.

Let us look at U.S. and Russian policy in the Caucasus, both past
and present.

The West’s Goal: Domination

For two decades, the West, as well as Israel, has dreamt of dominating
the Caucasus, which is the gateway from Europe and Turkey into
the oil and gas-rich Caspian Sea region. To do so required ripping
the Caucasus’ three ex-Soviet countries-Armenia, Azerbaijan, and
Georgia-from the Russian bear’s claws.

The U.S. and NATO have largely succeeded in doing so. The West
has already built two major gas and oil pipelines-BTE and BTC-from
Azerbaijan’s Caspian coast through Georgia and Turkey. The U.S. insists
that all pipelines bypass Russia and Iran.

Though Georgia and Azerbaijan are under continual Russian pressure,
both are NATO candidates and have aligned themselves with the U.S.

That leaves Armenia, perhaps Russia’s only real ally in the world,
as the sole obstacle to total American domination of the western land
route into the Caspian.

By coaxing Turkey to open its border, Washington is now trying to
lure Armenia away from Russia and into the infinitely richer and more
modern, attractive, and democratic Western/NATO bloc.

Wealthier, stronger, and about 30 times larger and more populous than
its small, besieged eastern neighbor, Turkey has been picked for the
lead role in the West’s seduction of Armenia.

Armenia’s Importance to U.S. Strategy

Until last year’s Georgian-Russian war, the U.S. had been silently
pleased with Turkey’s blockade of Armenia. Washington hoped the
blockade, imposed mostly due to the Artsakh war, would create economic
pressure on Armenians to resolve that conflict.

Note that only an Artsakh peace agreement could fully pry open
the Azeri-Armenian-Turkish corridor that NATO and Washington
craved. [See "Why Artsakh Matters to the West and Russia" by Boyajian
on Armeniapedia.org.] But the war in Georgia cast doubt on that
country’s ability to continue hosting western-bound pipelines. For
the U.S., the only alternative to unstable Georgia is Armenia. This
explains why Washington has been dramatically stepping up pressure
and the protocols are part of that pressure-on Turkey, Armenia,
and Azerbaijan-to resolve their differences and thereby create a new
American path into the Caspian.

How does Russia feel about Armenia’s border issues?

Russia’s Fatal Mistakes

The Kremlin had long been silently pleased with the closed
Turkish-Armenian border and the Artsakh stalemate. After all, these
prevented the U.S. from penetrating Armenia and dominating all three
Caucasus countries.

Now, however, confidential and other sources indicate that Moscow
favors both the Turkish-Armenian protocols and an Artsakh peace
agreement.

Russia reportedly hopes that trade across the Turkish-Armenian border
would enable it to profit from its ownership of Armenian industry,
particularly electricity production and transportation.

However, given Armenia’s small economy and size, the extra revenue
for Russia would not be considerable.

The Kremlin is also reportedly worried that a new Russian-Georgian
war would hurt Armenia’s economy since most Armenian imports/exports
must now go through Georgia.

Thus, Russia allegedly hopes that an open Turkish-Armenian border
would give its Armenia ally an alternative import/export route in case
of a war. Yet, given its alliance with Georgia, Turkey might well
close its border with Armenia in such an eventuality. Conversely,
were the Turkish-Armenia-Azeri corridor to remain open, this would
partly defeat the very purpose of a Russian attack on Georgia.

Moscow and Ankara have developed significant economic and political
relations in recent years. And Russia supplies most of Turkey’s
natural gas. Thus, the Kremlin apparently believes that it can dictate
to Ankara.

The Kremlin is wrong. Regardless of how friendly it becomes with
Russia, Turkey will stay within NATO, its only protection against
its historic, nuclear-armed Russian enemy.

Moreover, Turkey and Georgia, which also depends on Russian gas,
will eventually develop alternative energy sources and no longer
be vulnerable to Russia pressure. In the meantime, Russia will lose
Armenia to the West.

Russia is also trying to buy up future production from Azerbaijan’s
oil and gas fields in hopes that, in so doing, the West will lose
interest in Azerbaijan. In return, Russia is apparently pressuring
Armenia to, in effect, hand Artsakh to Azerbaijan.

This is a grave error. Historically, Azeris have betrayed Russia,
as happened in World War I when they sided with Turkey, and will do
so again. In the meantime, Armenian anger at Russia for selling out
Artsakh, combined with the lure of Western wealth, will permanently
drive Armenia away from Russia. Only a true Russian alliance with,
not economic and military bullying of, Armenia will keep Armenia as
a friend. Armenia’s fear of Turkey is not enough.

Russian Policy Blunders

Russia has a long history of disastrous policies. In the space
of 75 years, Russia lost two empires-Czarist and Soviet-and the
Cold War. Russia allowed false prophets-the Bolsheviks-to impose
on it the inefficient and inhumane political and economic system
of Communism. Russians let a deranged Georgian, Josef Stalin, maim
and murder countless millions of them. Even today, most of Russia’s
wealth comes not from human productivity but courtesy of Mother Nature:
oil and gas.

Recent Kremlin policy has been deeply influenced by Aleksandr
Dugin, an extreme nationalist ideologue. His political philosophy,
neo-Eurasianism, advocates a Russian-led alliance of Asian and Slavic
countries. Like most Russian analysts, Dugin saw Armenia as a barrier
against Turkey, Russia’s historic enemy. Dugin then changed his
mind. He now thinks that Turkey is a Russian ally. This is a clear
sign of neo-Eurasianism’s immaturity.

The Kremlin-this time with Medvedev and Putin at the helm-is once
again listening to false prophets.

Turkey’s arm can indeed be twisted, but not broken, by
Russia. Moreover, Turkey is tougher than Russia. During the Cold War,
genocidal Turkey would have annihilated Russia had it, rather than
the Soviets, possessed nuclear weapons.

While Turks make Russians think they’ve become friends, Russians
foolishly throw their only ally, Armenia, to the Turkish wolf. Russia
will lose Armenia but will not win Turkey over. Pan-Turkism will
continue, pushed by the West for its own purposes.

Moreover, as I noted two years ago, once NATO enters the Caucasus,
it "could then jump across the Caspian Sea and march straight into
Muslim Central Asia, posing a possibly mortal threat to Russia."

Reject the Dangerous Protocols Armenians must openly reject the
protocols. Besides abrogating long-standing Armenian rights vis-a-vis
its genocidal neighbor, they are a formula for Turkish hegemony
over Armenia.

If the Turkish-Armenian border is to open, it must be in a way that
does not permit Turks to infiltrate, buy up, Ottomanize, and eventually
control Armenia.

Armenians must now publicly and bluntly emphasize to their Russian
ally that the protocols will result in Russia’s being surrounded by
NATO and ultimately, along with Armenia, destroyed.

The author is an Armenian American freelance writer. Many of his
articles are archived at Armeniapedia.org.