ICG: NAGORNO-KARABAKH: GETTING TO A BREAKTHROUGH

armradio.am
07.10.2009 18:20

Armenia and Azerbaijan should endorse a document on basic principles
to end stalemate on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by the end of the
year, or they will face an eventual return to full-scale hostilities.

"Nagorno-Karabakh: Getting to a Breakthrough"- the International Crisis
Group’s latest policy briefing, examines the two-decades-old conflict
and concludes there is reason for optimism that the political stalemate
can be broken in today’s more supportive regional environment.

However, it also warns that both governments and the international
community must step up their efforts, as the status quo is increasingly
untenable.

"Although a deliberate military offensive from either side is unlikely
in the near future, the ceasefire that ended active hostilities
fifteen years ago is increasingly fragile", says Lawrence Sheets,
Crisis Group’s Caucasus Project Director. "There has been a steady
increase in the frequency and intensity of armed skirmishes that
could unintentionally spark a wider conflict".

The International Crisis Group considers that as a first step to
conflict resolution, Presidents Sarkisian of Armenia and Aliyev of
Azerbaijan must prepare their publics for a possible peace deal. At
present, there is a danger of a backlash, especially among Armenians,
that could derail any basic principles agreeme nt. After this
agreement is signed, Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto authorities and the
Nagorno-Karabakh Azeri representatives should be part of subsequent
peace talks. Crisis Group recommends the use of a multi-layered format,
including direct contacts between Azerbaijan and Karabakh Armenians
to help promote dialogue.

The international community, in particular the U.S., France and
Russia as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, should intensify efforts
to encourage Armenia and Azerbaijan to formally endorse the basic
principles document and then open negotiations on a conclusive peace
accord. The co-chairs should take advantage not only of their own
productive collaboration, but also of current positive movement
towards Armenia-Turkey rapprochement.

"There are encouraging signs the sides are inching towards agreement",
explains Sabine Freizer, Europe Program Director. "But differences
still remain between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the specifics of a final
deal, most seriously over Nagorno-Karabakh’s final status, and there is
mutual distrust between the societies. Though a definitive settlement
may still be years away, this window of opportunity to make genuine
progress and support sustainable regional peace must not be missed".