KYRGYZSTAN: RUSSIAN TROUBLE-SHOOTER GOES TO BISHKEK TO REVIVE BASE TALKS

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10/06/09

Sergei Naryshkin, one of the Kremlin’s top policy trouble-shooters is
in Kyrgyzstan. Naryshkin’s mission is reportedly to sound out Bishkek’s
positions on a variety of issues before the Kyrgyz and Russian leaders,
Kurmanbek Bakiyev and Dmitry Medvedev, come face-to-face on October
9 at the next Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) summit.

Naryshkin, a Putin insider, is Medvedev’s chief of staff. One of
his top priorities is expected to be pushing negotiations over the
proposed creation of a new Russian base in southern Kyrgyzstan,
analysts tell EurasiaNet.

Russia is growing vexed over what many in Moscow see as Kyrgyz
hesitation on the southern base, Western diplomatic sources say. Due
to displeasure over Bishkek’s decision to keep open the US-operated
transit center at Manas airport, Russian officials have delayed
dispensing a $2-billion investment package to help construct the
Kambarata hydro-electric power project.

Although talks on the southern base are being conducted at the most
senior level, they appear to have stalled. Russia and Kyrgyzstan have
less than a month to orchestrate a deal as a joint declaration signed
in early August noted the "desirability of developing and signing
[a base agreement] before November 1, 2009."

A key player in any decision, however, is Uzbekistan, Andrei Grozin,
the director of the Central Asia Department at the CIS Institute in
Moscow, said in an interview with EurasiaNet on October 6.

Naryshkin, he said, is considered a ‘good cop’ in the standard routine
of sweeteners and threats. The Kremlin is keen to see Medvedev and
Bakiyev’s next bilateral meeting produce a desired result. Negotiations
are being held at the presidential level between Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan
and Russia. The Ministries of Defense no longer appear to be involved,"
Grozin said.

"The Kremlin has several people in government to work with CIS
countries: Naryshkin, Igor Sechin, Anatoly Serdyukov and Sergei
Lavrov. Naryshkin usually plays the role of the ‘nice policeman’
who coordinates Russian politics in post-Soviet area," Grozin
continued. "He doesn’t bring up any thorny issues and usually
concentrates on humanitarian aspects of bilateral relations. But,
of course, he still works for the good of Russia’s position. I think
it will take several months to decide the base issue. It will be
interesting to see who visits Uzbekistan next."

Mars Sariev, a Bishkek-based political analyst, said negotiations
were floundering over where to locate the base. "The negotiations
aren’t in an active phase at the moment. Kyrgyzstan wants to locate
the base in Batken, Russia wants to locate it in Osh," he said.

The October CIS summit will be held in Chisinau, Moldova.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress