OLD DISPUTE COULD YET UPSET ARMENIA, TURKEY PEACE
By Matt Robinson

Reuters
Tue Oct 6, 2009 2:31pm EDT

MOSCOW, Oct 6 (Reuters) – Armenia and Turkey are due to sign historic
accords ending a century of hostility on Saturday but a simmering
territorial dispute could yet complicate their plans, diplomats said.

Christian Armenia and Muslim Turkey, at loggerheads since the World
War One mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks, plan to sign a
protocol in Zurich committing them to re-establish diplomatic ties
and reopen their common border.

An agreement would bolster Turkey’s credentials as a moderniser in the
West, boost Armenia’s poverty-stricken economy and improve security
in the South Caucasus region, a key transit corridor for oil and gas
supplies to the West.

But hanging over the talks is the spectre of one of the bloodiest and
most intractable conflicts sparked by the demise of the Soviet Union.

Armenia went to war with neighbouring Azerbaijan in the early 1990s
over the mountainous territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, an ethnic Armenian
enclave located within Azerbaijan’s internationally recognised
borders. Some 30,000 people died.

The war ended with a 1994 ceasefire after Armenian-backed forces
seized control of Nagorno-Karabakh and districts around it, including
a corridor of Azeri land connecting it to Armenia.

The two sides have kept an uneasy ceasefire ever since, with
spontaneous clashes along the border.

International mediators have been putting pressure on Armenia to
negotiate with Azerbaijan over Karabakh as part of a wider attempt
to secure a lasting peace in the region.

"There are intensified efforts … to make sure that at some point,
relatively soon, there will be something from the Karabakh process
that could help the Turkish-Armenian process move forward," a senior
European diplomat told Reuters.

Officially, the Azeri-Armenia talks on Karabakh are separate from
the Turkey-Armenia rapprochement. In reality they are closely linked
because Turkey has close cultural ties with Muslim Azerba an over
the Karabakh war.

In the latest diplomatic round, two days before the Swiss ceremony,
the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan will hold new talks on Karabakh
in Moldova’s capital Chisinau on Thursday.

The U.S. co-chair of the Minsk Group of mediators on Nagorno-Karabakh,
Robert Bradtke, told reporters in Baku he hoped that the "positive
dynamics" between the Azeri and Armenian leaders would continue at
that meeting.

But, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity
surrounding the talks, the European diplomat added that he did not
expect any major announcement in Moldova, saying: "I think it’s going
to take longer than that."

A Turkish government official in Ankara said:

"We are not a part nor a side in the Nagorno talks, but we would
welcome any progress towards a comprehensive solution between Armenia
and Azerbajian."

Turkey has said it hopes to open its border with Armenia by the end of
the year, but progress in Ankara-Yerevan talks have been complicated
in the past by the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute.

RATIFICATION RISKS

After its expected signing in Switzerland, the Turkish- Armenian peace
protocol must be ratified by both parliaments before taking effect.

Progress in Karabakh talks could ease resistance to the Armenia peace
process in Turkey, where lawmakers fret about making concessions to
Armenia without any payback.

But it could complicate matters in Armenia — where there is still
deep suspicion about any rapprochement with Turkey and mistrust of
Azerbaijan, which has not ruled out using military force to retake
Nagorno-Karabakh if necessary.

Before Thursday’s talks with Armenian President Serzh Sarksyan, Azeri
President Ilham Aliyev upped the stakes by saying "the negotiation
process (on Karabakh) is already in its final phase."

Observers believe Azerbaijan is pushing for at least a partial Armenian
withdrawal from seven Azeri districts that surround Nagorno-Karabakh
and were captured during the war.

"Armenia…wants to separate Karabakh from Azerbaijan, while Azerbaija
uty Foreign Minister Araz Azimov said.

Armenian officials played down expectations. "To say that tomorrow
there will be a breakthrough, I don’t know where this kind of
expectation could come from," an Armenian foreign ministry spokesman
said.

Armenian analyst Richard Giragosian said the mediators would push for
a short statement by Aliyev and Sarksyan on Thursday committing to
the principles of a peace deal on Karabakh as a sign of progress,
"mainly for the Turks to use to move forward with the parliament
(ratification)."

But he was pessimistic about their chances — and failure at the
Moldova talks is likely to hurt the Turkey-Armenia peace.

The senior European diplomat, asked about the chances of Turkey
opening the border as planned by year-end, without progress on
Nagorno-Karabakh, replied: "Fairly slim." (Additional reporting by
Hasmik Lazarian in Yerevan and Afet Mehtiyeva in Baku; editing by
Michael Stott and Mark Trevelyan)