THE KREMLIN WILL LOSE
David Boyajyan
Octob er 6, 2009
Russia will ultimately lose in the region if the Armenian-Turkish
protocols proposed by the NATO and the United States are ratified. In
two months after signing the protocols Turkey will have to open the
borders. It is also possible that the Armenian-Azeri border may be open
too in the near future because it is not possible that in parallel
with this process a peace agreement may be signed too. Even if the
border between Armenia and Azerbaijan stays closed, the open borders
with Turkey will support the penetration of the NATO and US in Armenia.
The final goal of the West is to have control in the region as it is
more than a dozens of years that the US and Israel have been trying
to have control in the region and the Caspian Sea, which is full of
oil. In order to reach this goal, they wanted the three countries of
Caucasus (Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan) go out of the hands of
the Russian bear. The US and NATO have succeeded in this work. The
West has already built two big pipelines from Azerbaijan to the
coast of the Caspian Sea through Georgia and Turkey. The US insists
on building the pipes in a manner to bypass Russia and Iran. As a
result Armenia has become the only ally of Russia in the region,
which is the only obstacle for the US to have total control in the
region. By convincing Turkey to open the borders the US is trying to
separate Armenia from Russia and take it into the modern, rich and
democratic Western union, NATO.
Armenia’s importance in the US strategy: The US was satisfied
with Armenia’s blockade resulted from the last year’s war in
Georgia. Washington hoped that the blockade resulted from the
war of Karabakh would help to settle that conflict. It is worth
mentioning that the only intermediating factor for opening an
Azeri-Armenian-Turkish corridor can be the peaceful settlement of
Karabakh conflict and the US wants it too.
The war in Georgia shows that they cannot be sure if this country would
be able to transit the pipes to the West. Thus, the only alternative
for the US was Armenia. This is the reason why the US is trying to
influence on Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey all the time in order to
solve their disputes and open a new way to the Caspian region.
What does Russia think about this issue?
Russia’s strategic mistake: It was a long time that the issue with
the Armenian-Turkish border was in the interests of the Kremlin. It
was an obstacle for the US to penetrate in Armenia and dominate in the
countries of Caucasus. According to different sources of information,
currently Russia encourages the development of the Armenian-Turkish
relations and peaceful settlement of Karabakh conflict. Russia hopes
that the trade connections as a result of open borders between Armenia
and Turkey will bring a lot of profits as most part of the Armenian
economy is controlled by Russia. The Kremlin is also afraid that a
new war between Russia and Georgia may hit and shock Armenia’s economy
again as the main transit routes are through Georgia. During the recent
years Moscow and Ankara have developed very important economic and
political relations. Accordingly, Moscow thinks that they can tell
Ankara what to do. It doesn’t matter how closer Turkey may cooperate
with Russia, still it is a member of NATO. This is the mistake of the
Kremlin. Even more, definitely Turkey and Georgia will establish a
new alternative source of energy and won’t be vulnerable by Russia
any more. During this time Russia will have to give Armenia to the
West. Russia is trying to buy oil and gas reserves from Azerbaijan
too as it hopes as a result the West will lose the interest to
Azerbaijan. Russia is openly influencing on Armenia to give Karabakh
to Azerbaijan. This is a very wrong policy. In the history the Azeri
people have always let the Russians down. Thus, as a result of this
policy Armenia will be very disappointed from Russia and the Western
prospects will attract Armenia, and Russia will eventually lose
Armenia. Only the real unity on part of Russia without any military
and economic discrimination can keep Armenia being their partner. The
fright of Armenia toward Turkey is not enough yet.
Russian policy mistaken: Russia has an experience of many years to
implement a wrong policy. During 75 years Russia lost two empires. It
lost the cold war too. The oil and gas Russia has now, which is a
tool of economic influence, is not a result of their policy but a
gift by the nature. Especially Alexander Dugin has influenced much
on the policy of the recent times on part of the Kremlin. As many
other Russian experts, Dugin used to believe that Armenia was the
biggest obstacle for them on the way to Turkey. Dugin has changed his
mind. Now he thinks Turkey is Russia’s ally. The Russian government
governed by Medvedev and Putin still listens to the advises of fake
preachers. Russia may press Turkey’s hand but not break it. On the
other hand, the Turks are trying to convince the Russians that they
have become friends. The Russians are throwing their only ally Armenia
into the mouth of the Turkish wolf. Russia will lose Armenia but it
won’t attract Turkey.
Reject the dangerous protocols: The Armenians should openly reject
the Armenian-Turkish "protocols". Besides the right that the protocol
gives Armenia’s neighbor that committed genocide it is also a formula
of control over Armenia on part of Turkey. If the border is to be
open, it should be done in a manner not to let the Turks penetrate
into Armenia, buy and control it. The Armenians should openly tell
Russia that the "protocols" will blockade Russia by NATO and will
collapse it, and Armenia as well.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
