ICG: ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN SHOULD ENDORSE A DOCUMENT ON BASIC PRINCIPLES TO END STALEMATE ON THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT, OR THEY WILL FACE AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO FULL- SCALE HOSTILITIES
ArmInfo
2009-10-08 10:53:00
ArmInfo. Armenia and Azerbaijan should endorse a document on basic
principles to end stalemate on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict by the
end of the year, or they will face an eventual return to full-scale
hostilities, yesterday’s statement by International Crisis Group says.
Nagorno-Karabakh: Getting to a Breakthrough,* the International Crisis
Group’s latest policy briefing, examines the two-decades-old conflict
and concludes there is reason for optimism that the political stalemate
can be broken in today’s more supportive regional environment. However,
it also warns that both governments and the international community
must step up their efforts, as the status quo is increasingly
untenable.
"Although a deliberate military offensive from either side is unlikely
in the near future, the ceasefire that ended active hostilities
fifteen years ago is increasingly fragile", says Lawrence Sheets,
Crisis Group’s Caucasus Project Director. "There has been a steady
increase in the frequency and intensity of armed skirmishes that
could unintentionally spark a wider conflict".
As a first step to conflict resolution, Presidents Sarkisian of
Armenia and Aliyev of Azerbaijan must prepare their publics for a
possible peace deal.
At present, there is a danger of a backlash, especially among
Armenians, that could derail any basic principles agreement. After
this agreement is signed, Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto authorities and
the Nagorno-Karabakh Azeri representatives should be part of subsequent
peace talks. Crisis Group recommends the use of a multi-layered format,
including direct contacts between Azerbaijan and Karabakh Armenians
to help promote dialogue.
The international community, in particular the U.S., France and
Russia as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, should intensify efforts
to encourage Armenia and Azerbaijan to formally endorse the basic
principles document and then open negotiations on a conclusive peace
accord. The co-chairs should take advantage not only of their own
productive collaboration, but also of current positive movement
towards Armenia-Turkey rapprochement.
"There are encouraging signs the sides are inching towards
agreement", explains Sabine Freizer, Crisis Group’s Europe Program
Director. "But differences still remain between Armenia and Azerbaijan
on the specifics of a final deal, most seriously over Nagorno-
Karabakh’s final status, and there is mutual distrust between the
societies. Though a definitive settlement may still be years away,
this window of opportunity to make genuine progress and support
sustainable regional peace must not be missed".