ICG: THERE IS REASON FOR OPTIMISM IN NKR CONFLICT SETTLEMENT PROCESS

PanARMENIAN.Net
07.10.2009 20:31 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Armenia and Azerbaijan should endorse a document on
basic principles to end stalemate on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
by the end of the year, or they will face an eventual return to
full-scale hostilities.

Nagorno-Karabakh: Getting to a Breakthrough, the International Crisis
Group’s (ICG) latest policy briefing, examines the two-decades-old
conflict and concludes there is reason for optimism that the
political stalemate can be broken in today’s more supportive regional
environment. However, it also warns that both governments and the
international community must step up their efforts, as the status
quo is increasingly untenable.

"Although a deliberate military offensive from either side is unlikely
in the near future, the ceasefire that ended active hostilities
fifteen years ago is increasingly fragile", says Lawrence Sheets,
Crisis Group’s Caucasus Project Director. "There has been a steady
increase in the frequency and intensity of armed skirmishes that
could unintentionally spark a wider conflict".

The dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the territory of
Nagorno-Karabakh intensified following the breakup of the Soviet
Union in 1991. However, the two countries are now in substantial
agreement on the framework of basic principles first outlined by the
Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group
in 2005. This framework revolves around three fundamental principles:
non-use of force, territorial integrity and self-determination.

As a first step to conflict resolution, Presidents Sargsyan of
Armenia and Aliyev of Azerbaijan must prepare their publics for a
possible peace deal. At present, there is a danger of a backlash,
especially among Armenians, that could derail any basic principles
agreement. After this agreement is signed, Nagorno-Karabakh’s de facto
authorities and the Nagorno-Karabakh Azeri representatives should
be part of subsequent peac ered format, including direct contacts
between Azerbaijan and Karabakh Armenians to help promote dialogue.

The international community, in particular the U.S., France and
Russia as co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group, should intensify efforts
to encourage Armenia and Azerbaijan to formally endorse the basic
principles document and then open negotiations on a conclusive peace
accord. The co-chairs should take advantage not only of their own
productive collaboration, but also of current positive movement
towards Armenia-Turkey rapprochement.

"There are encouraging signs the sides are inching towards agreement",
explains Sabine Freizer, Europe Program Director. "But differences
still remain between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the specifics of a final
deal, most seriously over Nagorno-Karabakh’s final status, and there is
mutual distrust between the societies. Though a definitive settlement
may still be years away, this window of opportunity to make genuine
progress and support sustainable regional peace must not be missed".