ARMENIA GOT A NEW THREAT
Igor Muradyan Iranvunk De Facto

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16:24:12 – 12/10/2009

Comments on Turkish-Armenian protocols

What happened in Zurich on October 10 was an illustration of
the process that the U.S. is trying to direct to Turkey in recent
years. Turkey will try to get maximum benefits from this agreement,
and thus be involved in processes controlled by the U.S. Emerging
from the current designed format of the relations, Turkey will appear
under pressure from outside and will lose its position in regional
politics. However, it should be noted that the withdrawal of Turkey
from this format of relations, is also favorable to the U.S., so
as to put it in the position of extra-systemic states not able to
adopt a consistent policy. Thus, this is rather a Turkish-American
than a Turkish-Armenian agreement. Turkish politicians are well
aware of these circumstances, but at the same time, of course, they
will try to overcome the negative consequences, that is, mainly the
external dependence of Turkey will enhance. Strengthening external
dependence supposes also, its distancing and heightened tension
with Russia. Turkey will also try to get away from not at all the
prestigious role of U.S. equipment in their European policy, to
acquire new positions in the Caucasus and Central Asia, which the
United States will oppose. That is, the game is not completed it
has just begun. The various attempts to present the objectives of
U.S. policy in the construction of the Turkish-Armenian relations,
the deployment of new communications lines, especially for transit,
as well as in connection with the desire to take Armenia out of
Russia’s influence, do not seem adequate.

U.S. interests in the region suppose for exactly the same policy in
respect of Armenia, exactly that for decades held Russia, that is,
building the position and situation of Armenia, as a constraint in the
way of political ambitions of Turkey. Therefore, it is conceivable that
on a certain plane, the interests of the United States and Russia will
coincide. United States understands that it is impossible to withdraw
Armenia from Russia’s influence, given the level of their cooperation,
and this goal cannot be accepted by Americans such as functional and
real. It should be very objectively understood that Armenia may have
"equal" relations with Turkey, having just "bunches" with major powers,
or in an alliance with them. Between the three centers of power in
the region – the U.S., Russia and Iran, a de facto alliance is quite
possible maintaining their independent policies.

With regard to possible threats and risks, then, abandoning
its previous history, Armenia got the biggest threat – Turkey’s
participation in the Karabakh process, and in general in the South
Caucasus, which was absent previously. And the U.S. and Russia are
unlikely to be able to protect Armenia from Turkey’s aspirations
to become the leading player in the Karabakh problem. Neither the
U.S. nor Russia is an absolute guarantee for repression of foreign
policy and the expansion of Turkey. To accomplish this task new
geopolitical structures are already required, which lack so far,
and their formation will require innovative policy approaches, in
US-Russian and other relations in the region, including, at least,
a partial reconciliation, including the United States and Iran.

Some patriotic groups have tried to resist the involvement of
Turkey in Armenia’s fatal issues, but, in general, the population of
Armenia accepted the steps of the government quite calmly and with
hope. There can be no doubt, as the Armenians behaved in the same
way since 1988. In any case, the actions of the Armenian government,
are quite legitimate. Of course, the denouement will certainly come
and yet everything happens within legitimacy. Patriotic parties and
factions realized that it is impossible to defend the rights of the
nation, while in alliance with political and intellectual handicap
partners. What happened is the result of degradation of the Armenian
political class review of the values and ideals.

Undoubtedly, the era of Hay Dat completed and many Armenians have
found in this deep satisfaction. Patriotic groups in Armenia and in
the Diaspora are only to solve the latest analytical task of the past
era- who is the author of this project.

From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress