DEVELOPMENTS ROUND THE NUCLEAR PROGRAMME OF IRAN
Sevak Sarukhanyan

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12 October 2009

The domestic political crisis in Iran which active stage was
finished in July caused new political developments round the Islamic
Republic. Because of the arrests of the EU citizens the relations
between European countries and Iran sharpened. At the same time the
processes connected with the Iranian nuclear programme activated.

This August the US president B. Obama laid down an indirect demand to
Tehran to boost the collaboration with the International Atomic Energy
Agency (IAEA) and to meet the demands of IAEA and the international
community connected with the Iranian nuclear programme and to take
off all the concerns about it.

The second half of August and the beginning of September turned into
the negotiations on the Iranian nuclear programme, into the weeks
of discussions on possible military strike and the imposing economic
sanctions against Iran and all these also put forward a big bunch of
contradictions regarding international policy and security. At the
same time, serious scandal was initiated by the French and the US
foreign offices connected with the name of the IAEA secretary and his
objectivity in the "Iranian issue". On 25 August the Deputy Foreign
Minister of France stated during the press-conference that his agency
has all the grounds to blame IAEA and its Secretary General Mohamed
El-Baradai in concealing a number of important facts concerning the
Iranian nuclear project from the international community. According
to French and latter to American diplomats very important information
about the Iranian nuclear programme, which IAEA possessed, was not
included in the latest report of the agency, and statements about
that information were made by its Secretary General only during his
press-conference, which are not legal arrangements and, in fact,
they cannot serve as a bases for applying legal measures against
Tehran. In its turn, the IAEA Secretary General stated that "these
accusations have political background" and added that "such statements,
which are directed to prevent the work of the specialists and are
aimed to deprive the agency of the authority of the independent and
objective structure; they flaunt the regulations of the Agency and
must be prevented".

But the latter developments, including new accusations by the
American representative in the IAEA, came to prove that the scandal
is not going to fade down. Touching upon those facts, which the IAEA
secretary concealed, the American representative said that he meant
the last statement by Baradei "that the relations with Iran are at
the deadlock" and that statement was not included in the latest IAEA
report. But in reality the IAEA report was devoted to the Iranian
nuclear researches, applied its technical side and even with the best
will in the world it could not include in its report such a statement
of no-technical character as "the relations are at the deadlock". As
a rule, such estimations were given by the IAEA Secretary General
at the press-conferences and official communications, which, really,
deprive them of their legal position and turn them into the evaluations
of political character. Both French and Americans are well aware
of that and thus it would be incorrect to regard the accusations
directed against El-Baradei from legal point of view. The problem is
more of political character and can be conditioned by the following
important factors:

The US, France and Great Britain intend to raise the issue of the new
economic sanctions against Iran at the UN General Assembly and Security
Council sessions. The last IAEA report does not afford legal ground
for such sanctions, as Iran’s entire nuclear activity, including the
uranium enrichment, does not violate international legal norms and
the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Under such
conditions while talking about the "concealed facts" the Western
states create basis to start the discussions on the imposing of the
sanctions which would not be based on the IAEA report.

France has activated its "Iranian policy" in recent years, it tries
to exert extra-pressure on Iran, and this is conditioned by the fact
that the Ahmadinejad government makes everything to deprive French
"Total" Oil and Gas Company of its multi-billion contracts with Iran
and push it out of the Iranian energy sphere.

Washington, in its turn, continues the political line, which was
adopted during the presidency of George W. Bush, directed at the
vitiation of the IAEA and pursues the aim to deprive the IAEA of the
monopoly on the struggle against proliferation of the nuclear weapons
and distribute those responsibilities among separate states, which
will allow the US to assume the measures, including military measures,
against one state or another in order to prevent the creation of the
nuclear potential.

As for Iran, the scandalous situation around the IAEA created rather
positive background for Tehran to continue the negotiations on its own
nuclear programme from more favourable positions. M. El-Baradai and
the IAEA indirectly became the defenders of Iran and the discrepancies
in the international community give a bigger room for manoeuvre.

The discussions of the nuclear programme in Iran activated mainly
at the end of August because the domestic political developments in
Iran in July and August sidelined the public discussion. The open
letter by the former presidential elections participant M. Karroubi to
the Chairman of the Assembly of Experts Hashemi Rafsanjani in which
he presented numerous examples and facts of violence in regard to
the arrested oppositionists and the mass rapes of women in Iranian
prisons pushed discussions on all other developments, including the
discussions on nuclear programme, out of the Iranian political and
information fields. This was also promoted by the process of the
formation of the government.

But already at the end of August when Iran again rejected the proposal
of the IAEA and the demand of B. Obama the nuclear issue re-gained
its important place in Iranian political process.

Thus, on September 9 Iranian party presented another "reciprocal
concession proposal" on nuclear issue to the IAEA and the "six"
(Russia, USA, Great Britain, France, Germany, China) which aim was "to
eliminate all the discrepancies between Iran and the "six". Though the
Iranian proposals were not voiced officially, according to European
diplomats, there is "nothing new" in them and they do not imply the
halting or the restriction of the uranium enrichment by Iran, which is
the main demand made to Tehran. Though Iran agreed to negotiate over
its package of proposals, no serious turnaround on its position can
be expected from Iran. This is proved by the statement of the leader
of Iran A. Khamenei made during his Friday Sabbatical on September 11:
"You must stay firm in the protection of your legitimate interests in
all the fields including nuclear one. The abandonment of your claims
means defeat".

Let us mention that such an approach by Iran, which has already become
traditional, is conditioned not mainly by the nuclear programme but
also by the developments in the domestic policy which took place in the
Islamic Republic. The aggravation of the contradictions with the West
can partially divert the attention of the society from the developments
in the domestic policy and relax the domestic contradictions.

At present the top priority for Iran is the avoidance from the
decisions about new sanctions which can be made at the sessions of
UN General Assembly and Security Council. The EU and the US, despite
their tough stance, would also like to avoid such a prospect because
after the last sanctions imposed two years ago the next step should
be the restrictions on buying Iranian oil to which the West is not
ready, especially amid the financial and economic instability under
the current global crisis.

The proposal of France to arrange the meeting between the high-ranked
representatives of Iran and the "six", which is now being arranged by
the EU High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy
Javier Solana, was conditioned by the aim to avoid the imposing of the
sanction on Iran. Meanwhile, the information that Iran is building new
uranium enrichment plant makes the negotiations even more complicated.

However, despite the fact that during such a meeting the ice around
the Iranian nuclear programme would hardly melt, it can be a ground
for the Western states not to impose serious sanctions on Iran. And
as for Iran the situation round its nuclear programme is only playing
into its hands, because the resumed negotiations, meetings and new
official proposals legitimate the re-elected president of Iran and
his government which became rather topical after the latest clashes,
victims and arrests.