TURKEY: ROCKY ROAD AHEAD FOR RECONCILIATION WITH ARMENIA
10/12/09
Eurasia Insight
ticles/eav101209b.shtml
Yigal Schleifer
The October 10 protocols on reconciliation signed by Turkey and
Armenia may signal a milestone in the history of the South Caucasus,
but Turkish experts warn that serious hurdles still stand in the way
of the two countries actually opening up their borders.
The protocols to be signed call for the renewal of diplomatic ties,
opening of the common border and the establishment of a historical
commission to investigate the mass murder of Armenians by Ottoman
forces during World War I.
The only catch, analysts point out, is that the protocols will only
go into effect once the parliaments in both countries ratify them. In
Turkey, domestic opposition could stand in the way of that happening.
Î"×~P£The road to restoring Turkish-Armenian relations is
rocky,Î"×~PÂ¥ said Amanda Akcakoca, a Turkey expert at The European
Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank.
Î"×~P£Signing it is not the same thing as having it ratified in
parliament. ThatÎ"×~Pשs going to be the hard part.Î"×~PÂ¥
For Turkey, the Nagorno-Karabakh issue could stand in the way of the
protocolsÎ"×~Pש ratification. Turkey is AzerbaijanÎ"×~Pשs strongest
ally, and Ankara imposed its economic blockade on Armenia in 1993 to
support BakuÎ"×~Pשs efforts to retain control over Karabakh.
During a May 14 address to the Azerbaijani parliament, Turkish Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan declared "that the border between
Turkey and Armenia will be open only after the full liberation of
the Azerbaijani occupied territories."
Although the recently released protocols make no mention of a
linkage between the normalization of Turkish-Armenian ties and the
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process, parliamentarians from the ruling
Justice and Development Party (AKP) have warned that it would be hard
to pass the protocols without any progress on Nagorno-Karabakh.
Speaking soon after the protocols were signed, Erdogan also seemed
to again link the two processes. Î"×~P£We want all conflicts to be
resolved and we want all borders to be opened at the same time,Î"×~PÂ¥
Erdogan said in a televised speech. Î"×~P£(But) as long as Armenia
does not withdraw from the occupied territories in Azerbaijan, Turkey
cannot take up a positive position.Î"×~PÂ¥
Î& quot;×~P£If problems between Azerbaijan and Armenia are resolved, the
public would more easily accept Turkish-Armenian relations. Approval in
the Turkish National Assembly would be so much easier,Î"×~PÂ¥ he said.
For its part, the Azerbaijani government said on October 11 that
the agreement Î"×~P£clouds the spirit of brotherly relationsÎ"×~PÂ¥
between Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Still, experts point out that despite the opposition to the deal,
moving ahead on restoring ties with Armenia makes strategic and
political sense for Turkey, a European Union candidate country that
has ambitions to play a larger political and diplomatic role in the
surrounding region and to establish itself as an important energy
transit route.
Î"×~P£The invasion of Georgia last summer really concentrated
minds in the region. Energy routes are the biggest game in town,
and you need security and stability and access for that,Î"×~PÂ¥ said
Semih Idiz, an Ankara-based foreign affairs columnist for the daily
Milliyet. Î"×~P£Restoring relations with Armenia can create all
kinds of synergy for regional cooperation and stability.Î"×~PÂ¥
Diplom atic ties with Yerevan can also buff AnakaraÎ"×~Pשs image in
the EU, he added.
Î"×~P£It brings credibility to the vision of zero problems with
neighbors and for cooperating in the region and Turkey gains
credibility in terms of its EU dimension,Î"×~PÂ¥ Idiz said.
Editor’s Note: Yigal Schleifer is a freelance reporter based in
Istanbul.