TURKEY-ARMENIA ACCORDS AIM TO DISPEL HOSTILITY
By Delphine Strauss in Ankara

FT
October 12 2009 03:00

Turkey and Armenia signed accords aimed at ending a century of
hostility at the weekend, but only after a nail-biting delay that
showed how difficult it could still be to turn promises on paper
into reality.

Diplomatic convoys raced through the streets of Zurich throughout
the evening as Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, stepped
in to help smooth last-minute disagreements that threatened to derail
the ceremony.

Foreign ministers Ahmet Davutoglu and Edward Nalbandian finally
emerged to sign protocols setting a timetable for the two countries
to restore diplomatic relations and open their shared border – after
agreeing neither would make any statement.

After a handshake, punctuated by smiles only from Turkey’s Mr
Davutoglu, the two men received hugs and congratulations from
on-lookers including Bernard Kouchner, the French foreign minister,
the European Union’s Javier Solana and Russia’s Sergei Lavrov.

By mending ties, Turkey stands to gain influence in the Caucasus,
smooth its path to EU membership – and lessen the perennial threat of
US legislators recognising Ottoman massacres of up to 1.5m Armenians
in 1915 as genocide.

Armenia would also gain through trade links with a large economy
closely tied to the EU if Turkey reopens the border it closed in 1994
to support its ally Azerbaijan in a conflict with Armenia over the
disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.

But Armenians’ anger at Turkey’s denial that the 1915 killings were
genocide, and Turks’ anger at Armenia’s occupation of Azeri territory,
mean each government faces big obstacles to ratifying and implementing
the agreement – even though each should technically be able to win
a parliamentary vote.

"We are sending the protocols to parliament, but to ratify these our
parliament will certainly watch what is happening in the matter of
Azerbaijan and Armenia," Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkish prime minister,
told his party yesterday. "Turkey cannot take a positive step towards
Armenia unless Armenia withdraws from Azeri land."

Azerbaijan has hinted that it could reconsider oil and gas sales to
Turkey if Ankara mends ties with Yerevan before any solution to the
conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. The foreign ministry in Baku said
in a statement yesterday that the agreement was against its national
interests and "cast a shadow over fraternal relations" with Turkey,
which are based on close ethnic ties.

The protocols make no mention of Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia says that
there should be no linkage between the two issues. Although Russian
diplomats said talks between the Armenian and Azeri presidents last
Thursday were "constructive", Ilham Aliyev, Azeri president, told
state television there had been no progress.