GUL OR ERDOGAN SHOULD NOT BOTHER GOING TO BAKU: HURRIYET

News.am
18:58 / 10/15/2009

"As it was put to me by a former American envoy that was trying to
mediate to solve the thorny Nagorno-Karabakh issue, &’it is difficult
to expect the Karabakh Armenians to be good citizens of Azerbaijan,’
the article by political analyst Barcin Yinanc published in Turkish
Hurriyet daily reads.

NEWS.am posts the full text of the article:

"I do not think that the Turkish bureaucracy thinks
differently. However hard it may be for the Azerbaijanis to grasp
this fact, the reality is that Karabakh is not in the international
agenda and there is a feeling of accepting the situation in the ground.

Actually Azerbaijan itself might be approaching to that point. The
rhetoric of the Azeri leadership that time is on their side and that
Karabakh will be taken back through military means if necessary has
stopped after the war between Russia and Georgia last year. Baku has
seen that while due to petrodollars the Azerbaijani army got stronger
than Armenian army, a war with Armenia might fire back since Russia
might intervene for the sake of its last remaining ally in the
region. And as a natural rival of Azerbaijan on the energy world,
Moscow would have more reasons to intervene in favor of Yerevan than
the need for show solidarity with its ally.

Azerbaijani leadership is most probably close to the point of
accepting that it will not be possible to have Karabakh under the
total sovereignty of Azerbaijan. In fact the formula international
mediators were working was called at one stage "independence minus,"
meaning that Karabakh will have the highest level of autonomy, but
won’t have full independence.

As the likelihood of the Azerbaijani people to topple the government
on the grounds of a "sell out on Karabakh," is very dim, the matters
lay totally in the hands of the Azerbaijani leadership.

Azerbaijan relies heavily on Turkey for a fair solution to the
problem. It will be much more confident on looking for a breakthrough i
there is an undeniable loss of confidence on the part of Baku towards
the present government. And let’s face it, the ruling Justice and
Government Party, or AKP, is not head over hills for Azerbaijan. As a
matter of fact the AKP government is not fond of any Turkic republics
of Central Asia. It is not a secret that AKP leadership feels more
at home in the Islamic states of the Arab worlds than the secular
Turkic republic which might even be considered by AKP affiliates even
as atheists.

I certainly would not want it to happen, yet as the name itself
suggest let’s dream of a utopist scenario in which the army had
intervenes and the AKP leaders find themselves oblige to leave the
country to exile. They would most probably end up in Cidde or Quala
Lumpur rather than Baku or Astana.

In short, there is a mutual dislike, leading to a distrust which
makes coordination on the Karabakh issue even more difficult.

The AKP government has taken a bold step to pave the way to normalize
relations with Armenia. Yet it can not continue the normalization
process at the expense of relations with Baku. Nagorno-Karabakh might
not carry a strategic value for Turkey. Yet Azeri oil and gas have
strategic importance for Turkey. Azerbaijan is critical for Turkey’s
energy policies.

If the government is decided to go ahead with the reconciliation
process with Armenia but can not afford to lose Azerbaijan, then it
should seek ways to build confidence. President Abdullah Gul or Prime
Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan should not bother going to Baku. As I
stated earlier, whatever they say does not have a positive impact.

What needs to be done is to send prominent Turkish figures who
are known to be respected in Azerbaijan. Former President Suleyman
Demirel, or former Parliament Speaker Hikmet Cetin, who are known to
be influential in Azerbaijan could be sent to Baku as envoys.

This way, the confidence of the Azerbaijanis could be reestablished,
enabling them to approach the reconciliation process with Armenia with
less suspicion. This can erbaijani leadership to be more forthcoming
for a breakthrough in Karabakh and thus having the two process,
Armenian-Turkish, Armenian-Azerbaijani, reconciliation to affect each
other positively."