WIN WIN PROTOCOL (I)

Hurriyet Daily News
Friday, October 16, 2009

The much discussed protocol which foresees the normalization of the
relationships between the Republic of Armenia and Turkey was signed
in Zurich, Switzerland, last weekend.

The foreign ministers of the two countries, in the presence of the
Minsk Group foreign ministers, were able to overcome the last minute
‘ditch’, which delayed the signing ceremony for hours. Consequently,
this historic protocol which showed the long-term thinking ability of
both sides, instead of yielding to an easy but meaningless pandering
of short-term popular sentiments, prompted wide-range discussions
within and without the region.

In Washington, DC, I recently had a chance to listen to the three
former American ambassadors to Turkey talking about a range of
issues related to Turkey. All three Ross Wilson, Marc Grossman and
Morton Abramowitz, who sat for a series of interviews for "Studyo
Washington", a daily news program on the Washington agenda which
broadcasts from America’s capital to Turkey for TRT Turk, and who
collectively praised the new protocol and argued in various ways how
important this protocol was as a way forward to solve complex issues
between Turkey and Armenia, and also to prepare a productive terrain
for geopolitical concert and regional stability.

The soccer diplomacy failed to carry either national soccer team
to the World Cup finals, but was able to fortify a groundwork of
diplomatic talks and finally to produce a protocol which promises
mutual benefits in light of shared interests. And this makes observers
and diplomats alike more hopeful for the ratification of the protocol,
and subsequently for better prospective for strategic long-term
stability. What has changed, and how have the two sides arrived here?

When one considers the starting point of this protocol as well as
the hopes in the future for the restored relationships, the role of
Justice and Development Party, or AKP, seems to have been the most
important from the beginning. New Turkish foreign policies, such as
disentangling historic conflicts with neighboring countries, coincided
perfectly with President Obama’s coming into the office. US, exhausted
in the region, became more open to such regional partnerships.

Turkey’s increased presence in regional strategic partnerships showed
its self-confidence and therefore helped various parties to believe
in Turkey’s ability to take on such an historically difficult episode
to work towards a peaceful reconciliation. Of course, there were also
other variables to urge the Turkish officials to hasten the road map
to better relations with Armenia. One obvious reason could have been
Obama’ s solid campaign promise to support a Congressional resolution
that would recognize as genocide the tragic events of 1915. However,
that would be immature to assess this development only and not taking
into account Turkey’s latest pro-active foreign policies in the region.

For Turkey, normalization of the relationship with Armenia is very
important for a couple of major reasons: One is to ease the historic
tensions by setting up commitees to look at the disputes, including the
tragic events of World War I. It is known that the Armenian diaspora,
which has a loud voice in various European capitals as well as in
America, had became the biggest headache for the Turkish government
over the last three decades along with the Cyprus issue.

And the continuing assault on Turkey in the world gave Turkey a
battered image. Whether or not the Armenian diaspora will be quieter
is not known; however, setting up such a commitee to look into the
troubling era will ease the jitters. The second is the possible
progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, an enclave in Azerbaijan,
through this bigger peace context. Finally, better relations with
Armenia, and opening up the last closed border in the region is
especially important for Turkey’s newly gained image of being a
good neighbor.

Armenia, economically one of the least developed countries in
the former Soviet sphere, will benefit the most from the improved
relations with Turkey. Reopening the borders will undoubtedly bring
prosperity to the country with increased trade, and also a bigger
chance for joining various regional energy and transport projects,
which at the end will end up by further stimulating its economy.

According to Vardan Ayvazyan, the head of the Armenian Parliamentary
Committee on Economic Issues, reopening the border with Turkey will
increase Armenia’s exports by 38% and its GDP will register a 3%
growth. In the past, Armenia was bypassed in the multi-billion
historical energy project, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, as a
result of Turkish and Azerbaijani opposition, despite the fact that
the shortest possible route was through Armenia and not Georgia. This
pipeline route still looks like a scar over Armenia, and it still
lingers as one of the biggest disappointments in memory. Now, at the
dawn of another historic, as well as richer energy project, Nabucco,
the Armenian government officials, in almost every possible occasion,
clearly state their willingness to enter partnerships. Hopefully,
the normalization of the relations and consequently solving the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, will lead to such prosperous future.

Turkey, as is well-known, closed its borders with Armenia in 1993
to protest the illegal occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven
districts of Azerbaijan amounting to about a fifth of the Azerbaijani
land. It should be known that it is not only Azerbaijan and Turkey,
but also the United Nations, took the a similar stance in viewing
the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict and has adopted the resolution #822
and followed it by three others: #853, #874 and #884, reaffirming the
sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Azerbaijan.

Turkey, as well as the international community, now wish that Armenia
will comply with the UN resolutions. Although it is not an official
pre-condition for normalization of the relations, one would predict
that without progress on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, it seems
that there is little chance for the Turkish parliament to ratify the
protocol. Therefore, not being able to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem poses a real danger of getting the sides back to square one,
after long months and even years of hard earned diplomatic gains
and goodwill.

Next: Protocol from Russia and US perspective as well as the wider
region. And where the Turkish and Armenian opposition stand.

* Oguzhan Guler is a freelance writer based in Kiev, Ukraine.

READER COMMENTS

Guest – Greg Shirvanian (2009-10-17 00:16:01) :

Dear Oguzhan, From your somewhat irrationally pessimistic article it
looks like your are not aware (or pretend to be so) of the root cause
of the current conflict between your brother Azeries and non-brother
Armenians. Whether is it not too obvious that all is about the status
of Karabakh and not the surrounding territories controlled by Armenian
forces? To put this otherwise for more clarity, the status is the
reason and the territories are the consequence. So yes, you got it
right now, the first should be solved first and then the second,
not the other way around. And reasonable, long-waited and inevitable
(however Aliyev says "Oh, no!") concessions on the status must come
from Azerbaijan, not Armenia. Once an agreement is achieved here, the
resolution of other issues could be reached as soon as time permits.

Therefore, for the sake of regional peace and prosperity, Turkey has
a vital role to play for the Aeries to get realistic and stop looking
at the Turks as just an ad hoc locomotive to help them out of their
self-invented problems. To my belief, timely ratification of the
protocols coould be one important and necessary step towards this end.

Best wishes, Greg