ARMENIA-TURKEY RELATIONS ARE MAIN FACTORS OF WORLD ARMENIAN DIASPORA’S INFLUENCE: EXPERTS

Trend
Oct 7 2009
Azerbaijan

The disagreement between the Armenian authorities and the world
Armenian diasporas in the issue of signing the Armenian-Turkish
protocols occurred due to the fact that the issues relating
to Turkey are the main factors of the world Armenian diasporas’
influence. However, the diasporas unlikely will be able to disrupt
the establishment of the Ankara-Yerevan relations, experts believes.

"At present, the lobby intends not only to help Armenia, but harm
Turkey" Cornell said. "This agreement will define the specific borders
between Turkey and Armenia and the diaspora will not recognize the
existing borders," the director of the Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
at Johns Hopkins University, Svante Cornell, believes.

Earlier Turkish Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan told Trend News
in an exclusive interview that Turkey and Armenia will sign a deal
to establish diplomatic ties on Oct. 10.

Opposition parties in Armenia have hinted at the possibility of
proposing amendments to the text, including on the proposal to set
up a commission to address the genocide issue.

During his recent international visit, Armenian President Serzh
Sargsyan met with representatives of Armenian diasporas in Europe,
Argentina and the U.S, and many of them expressed their opposition
to the signing of a Turkish-Armenian agreement.

The Armenian diaspora holds protests worldwide. Sargsyan faced these
actions in Paris, New York and Los Angeles. The demonstrators met
the Armenian president with slogans such as "Traitor!", "No protocols".

Several opposition parties in Armenia are also against Sargsyan’s
policy. Such meetings are also held against signing of the protocols.

On Oct.6, rally was held in Yerevan to protest signing of protocols
on development of relations with Turkey, Armenia Today said. The
event was organized by the movement Miasum "(" Unity "). Protesters
marched to the memorial dedicated to victims of so-called "genocide"
of Armenians. There they burned copy of protocols in eternal fire,
as well as a photo of President Serzh Sargsyan.

According to the experts, the Armenian diasporas are afraid of losing
influence after the signing of the Armenian-Turkish protocols.

The world Armenian lobby seriously prevents the normalization of the
Turkish-Armenian relations, since the issues relating to Turkey are
the main factors of the world Armenian diasporas’ influence, Turkish
MP Reshad Dogru said.

The world Armenian lobby hampers normalization of Turkish-Armenian
relations with all its might, Cornell added.

"There is great difference between Armenia and the world Armenian
lobby. What is advantageous to the country is not always advantageous
to the Diaspora" Cornell told Trend News over phone on Oct.7.

According to Cornell, the diaspora believes that the Armenian
government does not speak on behalf of its people. "The Diaspora does
its best to influence the president and the Diaspora’s actions are
headache for the Armenian government," Cornell added.

The Armenian diaspora acts rather bravely for many years because the
lobby supports not only financial stability of the country, but also
the internal political processes, the expert said.

However, it is too early to predict the results of the disagreement of
the Armenian government and the world Armenian lobby, the experts said.

As a whole, it is still too early to speak about duration of
impact that Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan and the world Armenian
diaspora’s confrontation will have, Director of the Armenian Center for
National and International Studies (ACNIS), Richard Giragosian, said.

"The real impact will depend on whether the Turkish parliament ratifies
the protocols.That is the biggest test and it is still to come,"
Giragosian wrote to Trend News via e-mail.

According to the Turkish MP, the Armenian lobby is unlikely to achieve
the breakdown of negotiations.

"I do not believe the Armenian lobby will make breakdown of the
Turkish-Armenian relations, because this is a pro-American project,
and the U.S. government approves the settlement of relations, which
means that the Armenian lobby has failed to play a role," Dogru added.

The issue of the influence of the Diaspora groups in shaping foreign
policy of Armenia is ambiguous, European Expert on Caucasus Licinia
Simao believes.

"The situation is extremely delicate for the Armenian President and his
government, but his decision to consult with the Armenian Diasporas
world -wide, in my view, attest to the serious efforts by Armenian
leaders to bring this process to a positive conclusion," member of
University of Coimbra, Simao wrote to trend News in an e-mail.

According to Simao, despite the radical opposition by some groups,
others more moderate exist and have voiced their support to the
reconciliation process. This is an important departure from the
previous image of the Armenian Diaspora as an homogeneous group.

"Therefore, the balance between being optimistic or pessimistic is
hard to achieve. A lot can happen to derail or endlessly postpone
the process," Simao said.

However, concerning the important US and EU support to this process
which have helped both the Armenian and the Turkish governments
withhold criticism at home and abroad, Simao added.

But with the recent "tour" of the Armenian diapsora, President Sargsyan
seems much more confident and ambitious in taking on the opponents
to normalizing relations with Turkey, Giragosian added.

"In this sense, Sargsyan is confronting the diaspora head-on and, so
far, he seems to be succeeding in deflecting the criticism.Interesting,
this is also resulting in a broad division between the diaspora
and the Armenian government, which only seems to please Turkey,"
the director added.

R.Hafizoglu contributed in the article.